Australians hoping for a reprieve after a tough 2025 might need to brace themselves. According to a sobering analysis by columnist Ben O'Shea, the year 2026 has the potential to deliver just as much, if not more, bad news, fuelled by the twin engines of global warming and a disturbing new political climate.
The Looming Shadow of 2026
In his piece for The West Australian, O'Shea paints a concerning picture of the near future. He argues that while 2025 is already shaping up to be a year of significant challenges, the political and environmental groundwork being laid now sets a dangerous trajectory for the following year. The central thesis is grim: the convergence of escalating climate impacts and a shift towards 'post-apocalyptic politics' could make 2026 a year of profound difficulty for the nation and the world.
The concept of 'post-apocalyptic politics' is key to understanding the warning. O'Shea isn't referring to a literal wasteland, but to a political mindset that has given up on long-term, cooperative solutions to global problems like climate change. Instead, it's a politics focused on short-term survival, blame-shifting, and managing immediate crises rather than preventing them. This approach, he suggests, directly undermines our ability to effectively tackle the slow-moving but immense threat of global warming.
Global Warming: The Accelerating Backdrop
The scientific reality of climate change forms the relentless backdrop to this political failure. O'Shea's analysis is grounded in the accelerating impacts of global warming, which are becoming increasingly tangible for Australians. From more intense bushfire seasons and prolonged droughts to devastating floods and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, the environmental signals are impossible to ignore.
These are not distant forecasts but present-day realities that strain infrastructure, economies, and communities. The concern is that by 2026, the cumulative effect of these events, combined with a lack of decisive global action, will reach a tipping point where managing disasters consumes all political and economic oxygen. Resources needed for adaptation and transition will instead be perpetually diverted to emergency response.
A Cycle of Crisis and Short-Termism
This creates a vicious cycle. As climate disasters become more frequent, public demand for immediate government response grows. Politicians, operating in a 24/7 news cycle and facing electoral pressures, are incentivised to focus on spectacular relief efforts rather than the boring, complex, and often internationally coordinated policy work needed to reduce emissions at their source.
O'Shea points to this short-termism as a hallmark of the emerging 'post-apocalyptic' style. When the political narrative shifts from 'how do we build a better future' to 'how do we get through the next disaster,' the vision for systemic change evaporates. Policies become reactive, patchwork, and insufficient for the scale of the climate challenge.
Why 2026 Poses a Particular Threat
The specific warning about 2026 stems from this interplay. The political decisions—or lack thereof—made throughout 2024 and 2025 on climate policy, energy transition, and international cooperation will have their most pronounced consequences in the years that follow. If the current trajectory of minimal progress and maximal rhetoric continues, 2026 could be the year where the bill comes due.
We could see a world where climate-induced food and water shortages spark new geopolitical tensions and migration crises. Economies might grapple with the simultaneous shocks of climate damage and a disorderly energy transition. Social cohesion could be tested as communities are repeatedly battered by extreme weather events. All while political leaders remain trapped in a cycle of crisis management, unable to break free and address the root causes.
Ben O'Shea's column serves as a stark wake-up call. It argues that the way out of this bleak forecast is to reject 'post-apocalyptic politics' before it becomes entrenched. The alternative requires rebuilding a political consensus centred on science, long-term planning, and genuine global cooperation to aggressively mitigate climate change. The message is clear: the choices made today will determine whether 2026 is a year of manageable challenge or one of unprecedented hardship. The time to change course is now, before the window for effective action closes further.
