Weather Holds Key to Verry Elleegant Stakes Upset
Trainer Joseph Pride has declared that Sydney's weather will be the decisive factor in whether his horse Ceolwulf can challenge the dominant favourite Autumn Glow in the Verry Elleegant Stakes at Randwick this Saturday. Autumn Glow, aiming to extend her unbeaten streak to 10 races, is a prohibitive $1.30 favourite, a price Pride acknowledges is well-deserved given her recent form.
Wet Track Could Level the Playing Field
Pride's main hope for an upset lies in the forecasted rain. He emphasised that if the upper end of the predicted rainfall occurs and the track becomes significantly wet, Ceolwulf could have a genuine chance to topple the glamour mare. "I'm not even thinking about winning chances because honestly, if that mare shows up with what she did the other day, you're probably not going to beat her at this stage of the preparation for us," Pride stated. "His best chance of running really well would be if the track is wet, so I've got my eye on that."
He added, "That's probably what punters want to hear from me, 'is there a chance your horse could win? Well yes, but it would have to be wet, I would think'." This candid assessment highlights the conditional nature of Ceolwulf's prospects, with wet conditions being the primary variable that could alter the race dynamics.
Relief After Health Scare
Pride expressed relief that Ceolwulf is even able to compete in the Verry Elleegant Stakes (1600m), given recent setbacks. The horse missed last year's edition due to injury, and two weeks ago, his autumn campaign appeared in jeopardy when he returned from the Apollo Stakes (1400m) with blood in his nostrils, a condition that typically triggers an automatic three-month ban.
However, subsequent veterinary examinations revealed no traces of blood in Ceolwulf's lungs or throat. It was concluded that the issue was likely a burst blood vessel in his nose rather than an internal bleed, allowing stewards to clear him to continue training. "As soon as I scoped him, I felt like he was entitled to be here, but going back to two weeks ago when I saw him post-race, it is a massive relief," Pride said. "He didn't miss a walk. He missed nothing."
Realistic Expectations for Ceolwulf
Despite Ceolwulf's impressive record of three Group 1 wins over the Randwick mile, Pride noted that the horse typically improves as his campaign progresses. Given this, he has set modest expectations for Saturday's race. "Hopefully the first four or five and I'll be happy. That will be box ticked going forward and I'll know that he is on track. But I'm very happy with him," Pride remarked. This pragmatic approach underscores the long-term focus for Ceolwulf's preparation.
Other Runners Also Favour Wet Conditions
Pride's hopes for rain extend beyond Ceolwulf. He highlighted that his other runners, Coal Crusher and Cool Jakey in the Liverpool City Cup (1300m), also excel on wet tracks, potentially boosting their chances. Additionally, he anticipates a strong performance from Gatsby's in the final race, praising the horse's improved attitude and recent form. "I'm very happy with that horse," Pride said of Gatsby's. "He's had a real change in his attitude and he's going well. He has put in three good, honest runs for me, and he'll go really well on Saturday."
As race day approaches, all eyes will be on the weather forecast, with Pride and his team hoping for conditions that could shake up the expected outcome in the Verry Elleegant Stakes.
