Millions of homes across the United Kingdom are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according to a new analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS). As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground beneath houses can shrink, dragging down a property's foundations.
Vulnerable Areas Identified
The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent, and a swath of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England's east coast, according to scientists who say mitigation measures will be essential. Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, explained: "By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data on projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have identified the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence. Most are in the London area, and that is also where you will see bigger changes in rainfall and temperature. It is a double whammy."
London's Unique Vulnerability
London also has a higher density of buildings. Harrison added: "These properties might have foundations that currently can withstand changes in moisture, but you might find in future there will be more movement. It is probably going to get worse." Subsidence can substantially reduce a property's value, and lenders often refuse to offer mortgages until it is resolved. Signs of subsidence include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. Remediation can require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin a property. In some cases, utility pipes need to be replaced and trees and vegetation removed.
Recent Climate Data
In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. There were £153 million in subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months of the same year. With climate crisis projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink-swell is on the rise.
Future Projections
The BGS dataset forecasts that, by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned with the Paris climate agreement. This rises to more than 1.8 million properties under a medium scenario, which is closest to current global emissions trajectories. Highly populated parts of London, including Camden, Islington, and Barnet, are most susceptible, as well as Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected in the capital will exceed 26% by 2070.
Harrison concluded: "Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue."
