US President Donald Trump is expected to face pressure from China to pursue a truce in the Middle East as he arrives in Beijing for a high-stakes meeting with President Xi Jinping amid escalating global tensions over trade and oil security.
The summit comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill, rattling global energy markets and fuelling fears of worsening inflation and economic instability worldwide.
Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lao China Institute, told Sunrise that China is uniquely positioned to try to ease tensions, having recently hosted Iran’s foreign minister and preparing to welcome Vladimir Putin shortly after Trump’s visit.
“It shows its unique convening power,” Brown said.
“I think that China will probably want to impress on the United States the common interest they have in a global economy that kind of works, even if it might not work in the way everyone wants.”
Brown said China is likely to encourage the United States to seek a truce, arguing the situation as it stands benefits nobody. He did, however, acknowledge that that is “probably not what Trump wants to hear”.
Iran's hold on the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in soaring fuel prices and left ships stranded. He said Beijing would likely support a deal that allows America to step away from the conflict while still coming out strong and “on top”.
With inflation and high energy costs worldwide, he argued this would be in the best interests of all parties.
The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly significant for China, which sources an estimated 13 to 14 per cent of its oil imports from Iran. Brown said while China can live with the disruption for a while, it will not be sustainable long term.
“It wants to resolve this,” Brown explained.
The meeting between Trump and Xi had originally been scheduled for last month before being delayed, but Brown believes the fact it is now proceeding is a positive sign.
Trump is accompanied in China by a large delegation of tech executives, including Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook. Trump said it was an “Honor” to travel alongside the executives and pledged to ask Xi to “open up” China to American business.
“I will be asking President Xi, a Leader of extraordinary distinction, to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the People’s Republic to an even higher level!” Trump wrote.
“I have never seen or heard of any idea that would be more beneficial to our incredible Countries!”
Brown suggested China may offer concessions around tariffs and market access, allowing Trump to present himself domestically as a successful negotiator and helping to de-escalate global tensions.
“That makes America look good. It makes Trump look like he’s a great dealmaker, obviously improves his domestic situation. That will have a knock-on impact on Iran,” he said.
