South Australia's Liberal Party is staring down the prospect of a historic election defeat, with polling suggesting the party could be reduced to as few as five seats in the lower house. A Fox and Hedgehog poll of 904 voters published this week put the Liberal primary vote at just 19 per cent, trailing One Nation on 20 per cent and Labor on 40 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads 61 to 39 per cent, up from 55 to 45 at the last election.
The poll, taken from January 31 to February 8, captures a period of turmoil for the federal Coalition, which has impacted the state party's brand. SA Liberal president and federal senator Leah Blyth acknowledged in a speech on Sunday that the federal team's issues were 'clouding' the state team's message. Former ABC elections analyst Antony Green noted the poll is 'roughly in line with everything we've seen,' referencing previous state polls from YouGov and DemosAU that put the Liberal primary vote at 21 per cent.
Fox and Hedgehog founder Michael Horner said the Liberal Party could hold 'somewhere in the realm of five seats' after election day, though incumbency may save some vulnerable MPs like Stephen Patterson in Morphett, Vincent Tarzia in Hartley, and Jack Batty in Bragg. However, Horner added that a strong tally for the Liberals looks doubtful unless federal factors improve.
One Nation's rise has been fueled by federal Coalition instability and the unveiling of former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi as its lead upper house candidate. The party's primary vote jumped seven points from a similar poll in November-December. Despite this, Horner believes One Nation will likely win only two upper house seats, though it could be competitive in some regional lower house seats.
It remains unclear whether the major parties will adjust their strategies to counter One Nation, which has historically been a protest party. Antony Green questioned whether One Nation can sustain its polling lead through to the election and whether other parties will attack or ignore them. The last significant third-party force in SA was Nick Xenophon's SA-Best in 2018, which was largely unsuccessful.
The election is five weeks away, and while polls are a snapshot with a 3.9 per cent margin of error, the trend is hard to ignore. Labor, which won a landslide in 2022, is eyeing off the prospect of handing the Liberals their worst defeat since 1993, when Labor was reduced to just 10 seats after the state bank collapse.
