One Nation's South Australian Election Prospects Dim to Regional Seats
One Nation is anticipated to capture merely a handful of regional seats in the upcoming South Australian election, with the party's momentum faltering like a dropped bottle of Fanta. The much-hyped "orange wave" appears unlikely to materialise, as voters are shifting strongly back to the major parties, overshadowing national attention on One Nation's campaign and polarising poll results.
Internal Insights and Candidate Challenges
Despite weeks of hype and early surges in polling, an insider revealed that One Nation is now expected to scrape only a couple of seats at best. The insider explained to 7NEWS.com.au, "People didn't realise, you're not voting for Pauline Hanson - you're voting for her candidate, and they didn't like that." They added, "Candidates can leave the party at any time." While remaining optimistic about securing three or four seats, the insider expressed doubt about achieving the large number needed to form an opposition.
Currently, South Australia has no One Nation members in either the lower or upper house, with its only ever upper house MLC, Sarah Game, having left the party to form her own in 2025. The campaign faced a significant setback when candidate Aoi Baxter, initially defended as a minor distraction, was revealed to be subject to a UK arrest warrant over an alleged sexual offence, leading to his swift removal and raising concerns about vetting and candidate quality.
Policy Overlap and Electoral Dynamics
One Nation's policies in South Australia are limited in uniqueness, with most overlapping those of other parties. Key proposals include repealing the Indigenous voice to parliament, banning offshore wind farms, implementing selective fishing policies, ensuring water supply to lumber forests, and allowing banned health staff back to work if they refused certain vaccinations.
Federal leader Pauline Hanson asserted that major parties are worried about the One Nation factor, agreeing the election serves as a barometer for the party's popularity. Support for Hanson and her party has surged in recent months, but analysts caution that this may not translate into seats.
Expert Analysis and Polling Data
Adelaide University emeritus professor of politics Clem Macintyre noted that One Nation's rise could create a watershed moment in Australian politics, potentially ending two-party dominance at the federal level. He stated, "If they do make a breakthrough, they're going to have to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative government." He added, "It's more frustration with the major parties ... I think we can still say One Nation is a party of disaffected voters."
A final YouGov poll released on Friday forecast a 59–41 Labor win on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation. While One Nation recorded 22 per cent statewide support, analysts believe this is unlikely to convert into seats. YouGov's Paul Smith commented, "One Nation's surge to 22 per cent places them second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas." He also noted that Labor is poised for its strongest two-party preferred result in SA history, while the Liberals face their worst primary vote since the coalition's formation.
Key Seats and Media Coverage
Seats to watch for One Nation include Chaffey in the Riverland with candidate Jennifer Troeth, the Yorke Peninsula seat of Narrunnga with Chantelle Thomas, the SA western coast seat of Flinders with Brenton Hincks, and the seat around Port Augusta's Giles with Barry Drage. Pauline Hanson is currently enjoying the best polling of One Nation's near 30-year history.
7NEWS will provide special coverage of the state election, featuring a one-hour preview show hosted by Rosanna Mangiarelli and Mike Smithson at 5pm on Saturday, with guests including the Advertiser's Andrew Hough and FIVEaa's Stacey Lee. A special panel at 6.30pm will include 7NEWS network political editor Mark Riley and various political figures, touted as the most experienced team ever assembled in South Australia for election night coverage, also available live on 7Plus.
