Australia's retail sector is experiencing a monumental cash injection as Black Friday sales are projected to drive a record-breaking $6.8 billion in consumer spending over a single weekend. This surge offers a vital lifeline for retailers after a prolonged period of subdued spending due to high inflation and interest rates.
A National Spending Spree
According to the Australian Retailers Association, shoppers shattered records in 2024 by spending $6.5 billion during the Black Friday weekend. Forecasts for this year predict a further 4 per cent increase, pushing the total to a staggering $6.8 billion. The event has ballooned from a traditional four-day sale into a month-long phenomenon, officially dethroning Boxing Day as the nation's biggest sales event.
Cameron McCormack, a senior portfolio manager at VanEck, described the forecast as a "shot in the arm for retailers". He highlighted that this consumer resilience comes despite a challenging economic climate, with national inflation spiking to 3.8 per cent in the year to October. The situation is even more acute in Western Australia, where Perth's inflation hit 4.3 per cent, the second-highest rate in the country behind Brisbane.
Winners and Losers of the Retail Rush
Specific retail categories are poised to be the biggest beneficiaries. Mr McCormack pointed to electronics, appliances, department stores, and lifestyle products as major growth areas. This trend is expected to bolster companies like JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman, which recently reported profit growth, potentially extending their strong performance into the 2026 financial year.
However, the picture is not uniformly bright. For retailers like Myer, which reported a 30 per cent drop in net profit for FY25, the pressure is on to successfully convert browsing customers into paying ones. The success of this sales weekend is far more critical for their financial recovery.
The spending wave isn't confined to the retailers themselves. Major retail landlords, including the Scentre Group (owner of Westfield centres) and the Vicinity Group (owner of Morley Galleria, Lakeside Joondalup, and Mandurah Forum), are also reaping the benefits. High occupancy rates and growing net operating income for these real estate investment trusts are expected to be further solidified by the Black Friday boom.
The Ripple Effect Across Sectors
The positive impact of Black Friday extends beyond retail shops. Andrew Hughes, a marketing lecturer at the Australian National University, notes a significant trickle-down effect into the hospitality industry. "For a lot of coffee shops and hospitality venues, they notice a spike around this time of the year as well because after our shopping we sit down and have lunch," Dr Hughes explained.
In Western Australia, the appetite for deals is particularly strong. Data from comparison site Finder shows that 33 per cent of WA shoppers planned to participate in the sales, intending to spend an average of $572 each. This equates to a massive $439 million injection into the state's economy. The most sought-after items for West Australians are clothing and shoes (78%), followed by electronics and gadgets (54%), and beauty products (30%).
