As 2025 draws to a close, a disturbing pattern has solidified in Washington. The guardrails that once constrained a US president have largely vanished, presenting profound implications for the international rules-based order and offering a critical lesson for nations like Australia.
The Erosion of Restraint in Washington
Columnist and former The Canberra Times editor Crispin Hull argues that the question posed at the start of the year has been decisively answered. There is virtually no one standing in Donald Trump's way anymore. The initial hope that institutions and civil society would temper the administration's impulses, as sometimes occurred during Trump's first term, has evaporated.
The transformation has been systematic. Federal agencies dedicated to foreign aid, environmental protection, health, education, and meteorology have been gutted, with thousands of public servants summarily dismissed. The administration has been populated not just by loyalists, but by a notable absence of independent, qualified experts.
This vacuum has allowed a series of drastic actions to proceed unimpeded. Obsessive policies on mass deportations have been enacted without due process. Erratic tariffs have been imposed based on presidential whim. The US has withdrawn from international bodies, and taken lethal action against suspected drug runners on the high seas, risking innocent lives. The pursuit of personal vendettas and self-enrichment, alongside narcissistic projects like renaming national landmarks after himself, has proceeded without internal challenge.
Global Consequences and a Lesson for Australia
Hull contends that the domestic decay of the rule of law in America has a direct and dangerous international corollary. The move away from a cooperative, rules-based global order to one dictated by the unpredictable whims of a single leader invites widespread lawlessness. Nations like China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Israel may see Trump's actions as a green light to flout international law, encouraging belligerence and aggression.
For Australia, the lesson is twofold and urgent. First, the nation's entwined defence reliance on the United States has become deeply problematic under Trump and will remain a vulnerability if 'Trumpism' endures. Second, mimicking Trump's policy failures is a path to economic ruin.
Trump's energy policy, favouring fossil fuels over renewables, is a cautionary tale. Australia's coal exports face a future of dwindling demand. Meanwhile, failing to electrify the nation's vehicle fleet would leave it dependent on expensive, foreign-refined oil, hammering the trade balance and fuelling inflation and interest rates.
The Frightening Prospect of a Crisis
A major concern for 2026 is how this hollowed-out administration would handle a new emergency. During the COVID-19 pandemic in Trump's first term, experts still led key agencies and could mount a response. Today, with top posts filled by unqualified loyalists, the US capacity to manage a pandemic, natural disaster, or terrorist attack is frighteningly diminished.
This, Hull notes, is the classic downfall of autocrats: surrounded by sycophants, no one has the courage to save them from their own mistakes. While the US judiciary has shown some pushback against unconstitutional executive orders, the overall trajectory remains deeply worrying.
Closer to home, Hull warns that immigration and health are key pressure points. If the Labor government cannot fix these 'mess[es]', the political pendulum is likely to swing. As the new year approaches, the unfolding situation in America serves as a powerful reminder of the value of robust institutions, the rule of law, and strategic energy independence.
