Just days into 2026, the world is witnessing a stark return to a doctrine of raw power and hemispheric dominance under US President Donald Trump, with profound implications for global stability and Australia's strategic outlook.
The Caracas Raid and the 'Donroe Doctrine'
With the ink barely dry on his new National Security Strategy, President Trump has acted, authorising a daring military operation in Caracas, Venezuela. The stated justification was a national security threat from drugs, a claim widely viewed as thin given Venezuela is not a source of fentanyl and most US-bound cocaine originates in Colombia.
The real motive, analysts suggest, is securing access to Venezuela's vast reserves of heavy crude oil and mineral wealth. US forces have already seized shipments worth an estimated US$2.8 billion. Energy Secretary Chris Wright framed it as necessary "leverage" to force change in Venezuela, while another official spoke of "controlling the revenue."
This action embodies what Trump brands the 'Donroe Doctrine', a modern, muscular twist on the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. It asserts US primacy in the Western Hemisphere but pairs it with a new willingness to engage in imperial-style resource acquisition.
Contradictions and the 'Morality' of Power
The mission's rationale appears even more contradictory against Trump's November pardon of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, who was serving a 45-year sentence for trafficking over 200 tons of cocaine into the United States. Trump claimed Hernández had been treated "very harshly and unfairly."
When questioned about limits on his authority after the Venezuela raid, Trump pointed only to his own morality and judgement. He further suggested the relevance of international law depended on his personal definition of it. This sentiment was echoed by his deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, who told CNN the world is "governed by strength, force, and power."
The US State Department's social media has amplified this tone, warning nations not to "play games" and declaring in full caps: "THIS IS OUR HEMISPHERE."
Global Fractures and a Direct Threat to NATO
The repercussions extend far beyond Latin America. Trump's open desire to acquire Greenland directly imperils the NATO alliance. The pact's foundational Article 5 requires members to defend any ally under attack, but it never contemplated aggression by one member state against another. European leaders are reportedly in a state of private panic over this existential prospect.
This aligns with warnings from foreign policy expert Richard Haass of a slide from a world order into "three regional disorders": a US-dominated Americas, a Chinese-led Asia, and a European sphere with Russia as a major power.
Despite this, some apologists, including in Australia, continue to insist the US remains a reliable, engaged ally. Yet with Trump only in the first year of his term, analysts question how many more norms must be shattered before Canberra's optimistic outlook is punctured.
The age of impunity, it seems, has arrived. The strong are being given a green light, and the rules-based international order that shaped the post-war era, including Australia's security framework, is unravelling at a startling pace.
