A permission structure has been crafted for Liberals to ditch the first woman to lead the federal party room before she has even had a year in the role. Since the day Sussan Ley narrowly secured the leadership over conservative rival Angus Taylor, her detractors have framed her removal as a matter of 'when', not 'if'. The implosion of the Coalition, bleak polling and a host of other internal woes have accelerated the timeline of what has always been painted as an inevitable challenge.
Ley's demise will be the product of a carefully curated narrative that selectively amplifies inflection points throughout her short tenure. To justify her removal, her detractors will look to build a picture of accumulative failures of judgement. Individually, the transgressions might be relatively minor, but collectively, they will be used to build a stronger narrative about a leader consistently perceived to make the wrong calls.
Examples include her criticism of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for wearing a Joy Division T-shirt, which many Liberals found embarrassing. She also demanded Kevin Rudd be recalled as US Ambassador because Donald Trump disliked him. More consequential was her campaign for an early return of parliament after the Bondi terror attack, which backfired politically.
When Ley secured the leadership, she promised to do things differently, forming backbench committees and pledging to consider advice. However, her grip on authority slipped when the Nationals scrapped the net zero target before her energy spokesman could develop a policy. Moderates fear a lurch to the right under a conservative leader like Taylor or Andrew Hastie would be the final death knell for the Liberals.
One moderate Liberal said Ley 'moved away from who she was going to be'. With One Nation's primary vote surging and Ley's personal preferred prime minister ranking hitting lows, the numbers are terminal. Even some detractors admit she was never seriously given a chance to succeed.
