Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is walking a political tightrope, caught between the need to define her party's agenda and the perils of releasing policy too soon. This comes after widespread criticism that policy development under her predecessor, Peter Dutton, was "too thin and too late" for the last election.
The Immigration Policy Dilemma: Detail vs. Principle
Ley's first major test is an immigration policy set for release before Christmas. She has indicated it will be heavy on "principles," but key questions remain unanswered. Will it include an overall migration number, and how specific will the details be?
This debate reflects a deeper internal struggle within the Liberal Party. Conservative and moderate factions are battling to shape the party's direction, with the immigration policy becoming a focal point for these ideological fractures. The central dilemma is clear: a highly detailed policy risks being outdated by the next election, while a vague one leaves Ley open to attacks for lacking substance.
The Hazard of Tackling "Dependency" and Welfare
Beyond the rush to formulate policy, Ley faces a fundamental strategic challenge. In a September speech, she argued for moving away from an age of "dependency" and questioned middle-class welfare. While philosophically aligned with Liberal values of fiscal restraint, campaigning on such a platform is politically dangerous.
Taking entitlements away from voters, especially during a cost-of-living crisis, is seen as near impossible. The political lesson from recent history is stark. Former Labor leader Bill Shorten proposed policies with clear "losers" in the 2019 election and paid the electoral price. The Albanese opposition, conversely, supported the Coalition's stage three tax cuts while in opposition, only to modify them later in government.
Industrial Relations: The Coalition's Scorched Earth
All eyes are now on the Coalition's developing industrial relations policy, which Ley has broadly targeted as a handbrake on productivity. She has criticised Labor's multi-employer bargaining laws and promised a return to enterprise-level bargaining with more flexible work arrangements.
However, IR remains scorched earth for the Liberals since the John Howard-era WorkChoices disaster. The opposition's spokesperson, Tim Wilson, faces the monumental task of finding a safe path through this minefield. Wilson, who dramatically regained the seat of Goldstein from teal independent Zoe Daniel, is seen as ambitious and outspoken.
In a recent speech, Wilson hinted at a new approach, stating his strategy "will be different from my predecessors." He warned against prosecuting old debates on the unions' turf and instead spoke of mobilising a new constituency, particularly small businesses, to advocate for simplification and cooperation.
He pointed to the integration of artificial intelligence as a potential reset point for the employment market, creating opportunities for small business. Yet, the core problem remains: any proposal to trim recent union wins would likely meet fierce voter resistance, mirroring the dangers of an assault on "dependency."
As the Ley opposition navigates these treacherous waters, the balancing act between defining itself and avoiding electoral landmines will be crucial. The decisions made on immigration and industrial relations in the coming months could either set a compelling alternative agenda or repeat the policy missteps of the past.
