Europe's attempt to placate former US President Donald Trump through flattery and concessions has spectacularly backfired, with the continent now facing aggressive new tariff threats unless it agrees to sell Greenland. The escalating standoff, described by analysts as a "standover tactic," has pushed the Western alliance to a breaking point and forced urgent questions about Australia's own security partnerships.
The Failed Strategy of Appeasement
From the outset of the renewed trade tensions, China adopted a markedly different approach to Europe. Beijing stood firm against Trump's opening tariff salvos, refusing to engage in toadying or transparent flattery. This posture positioned China as the reluctant but resolute adult in the room, one not seeking conflict but unafraid of it.
Europe, however, fell into a predictable trap. In a bid to secure favourable trade deals, key figures appealed directly to Trump's ego. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte infamously referred to him as "daddy" during a press conference, while King Charles squired the former president around in a golden carriage. This strategy ignored the stark historical lesson that appeasement often emboldens aggressors.
Confidence in those early European deals has now turned to dust. Trump is threatening renewed tariffs on eight European nations if an agreement to sell Greenland is not reached. He has openly compared the manoeuvre to a New York mobster muscling in on prime Manhattan real estate, showcasing a transactional view of international relations that disregards sovereignty and long-standing alliances.
Europe Finally Pushes Back
Belatedly, European leaders are mounting a concerted pushback. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in an abrupt shift from his earlier conciliatory policies, labelled the tariff threats "completely wrong." A major trade agreement signed with the US in July 2026—a ceremony where Trump fumbled the papers and Starmer had to stoop to pick them up—remains unratified and is now unlikely to proceed while the Greenland ultimatum stands.
French President Emmanuel Macron has declared that no amount of intimidation will change Europe's position on Danish sovereignty over Greenland. He has called for the European Union to activate its powerful Anti-Coercion Instrument, colloquially known as the trade "bazooka." This mechanism could impose restrictions on US investments in Europe and limit intellectual property protections for American companies.
The potential deployment of this instrument, originally designed to counter hostile states, against a NATO ally underscores how profoundly the relationship has deteriorated. It signals Europe's painful awakening to the reality that appeasement not only fails but can invite further demands.
A Fractured Alliance and Dire Implications for Australia
The crisis has led the UK's prestigious Chatham House foreign policy think tank to declare the Western alliance not just strained, but over. The previously unthinkable prospect of armed conflict between the US and its European allies is now being actively considered as a possibility.
This global fracture, driven by Trump's actions, does not leave Australia immune due to geographic distance. It forces uncomfortable questions about the nation's core alliances. Should the US attempt to seize Greenland by force, would the critical American communications bases hosted at Exmouth and Pine Gap be used in such military aggression?
The future of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing agreement is also thrown into doubt. Most fundamentally, Australians must ask if they share the same values with a nation that shows no qualms about annexing the sovereign territory of an ally. The cornerstone of "shared values" that has long underpinned the ANZUS alliance is under unprecedented stress.
The events of recent weeks, culminating on January 20, 2026, reveal a world order where traditional diplomatic norms have been shattered. Europe's initial miscalculation in appeasing Trump has created a crisis of sovereignty and security, leaving middle powers like Australia in a precarious position, forced to re-evaluate the foundations of their most important strategic partnership in an increasingly volatile world.
