Doctors across the Illawarra Shoalhaven region have issued a stark Christmas warning as influenza cases surge back to levels not seen since early winter. A dramatic spike in confirmed flu infections has prompted urgent calls for vigilance during holiday gatherings.
Late-Season Spike Mirrors Winter Peak
Health data reveals a concerning trend. In the week ending December 13, 179 cases of influenza were reported in the Illawarra Shoalhaven. This figure represents a huge increase from the previous week and closely mirrors the case numbers recorded in early June.
Experts caution that these laboratory-confirmed figures represent only a small fraction of total infections, as most people with flu symptoms do not seek formal testing. While the current numbers are below the yearly peak experienced in July and August, the late-season surge in a record-breaking flu year has alarmed health authorities.
Pressure on Hospitals and a New Viral Threat
NSW Health Minister Ryan Park confirmed the prolonged flu season, driven by influenza A, is already straining the hospital system. He expressed concern that hospitals are not getting their usual seasonal respite from respiratory illness.
Virologist Professor Nathan Bartlett from the Hunter Medical Research Institute identified the primary driver of the surge as a "mutant version" of the fast-spreading H3N2 strain, known as subclade K. First detected in Australia in August, this variant appears less susceptible to existing immunity, leading to increased transmission. According to the Doherty Institute, it has been a leading cause of respiratory-related deaths in Australia since its emergence.
National Record and a Plea for Holiday Safety
The Royal Australian College of GPs (RACGP) reports that nationally, 2025 has seen at least 491,000 influenza cases—a 34.5% increase on 2024's all-time high. Notably, flu deaths have surpassed those associated with COVID-19 for the past four months.
RACGP President Dr Michael Wright urged the public to prioritise safety during celebrations, recalling that last summer also saw a significant post-Christmas surge in cases. He emphasised that while no one should spend the festive season alone, everyone deserves to be safe and well.
"The last gift we want to be giving each other is a dose of influenza," echoed Minister Park's sentiment. Dr Wright advised hosts to consider how unwell or vulnerable guests, including seniors, young children, pregnant women, and those with chronic conditions, can participate safely, such as via video call, to prevent infection spread.
With NSW set to introduce free needle-free flu vaccinations for young children next year, health officials hope immunisation rates will improve, helping to avoid breaking more grim records in 2026.
