A sobering new health forecast predicts that more than one million residents of Western Australia will be living with debilitating musculoskeletal conditions like arthritis, back problems, and osteoporosis within the next two decades. This surge is set to place immense strain on the state's healthcare services and economy.
The Looming Burden of Musculoskeletal Disease
The stark projection comes from a report commissioned by Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA and developed by the National Centre for Health Outcomes Research. The data reveals a troubling trajectory for the state's physical health. Currently, these conditions affect approximately 755,000 West Australians. However, by the year 2045, this number is expected to skyrocket to 1.08 million people.
This represents a staggering increase of over 40% in just over twenty years. The report highlights that these are not just minor aches and pains. They are chronic, painful conditions that severely impact mobility, independence, and quality of life, often leading to early retirement and a reliance on care.
Key Conditions Driving the Crisis
The forecast breaks down the expected rise across three major condition groups. The most prevalent will be osteoarthritis and other joint diseases, projected to affect around 585,000 West Australians by 2045. Back and neck problems, including chronic lower back pain, are expected to impact approximately 477,000 people.
Meanwhile, the brittle bone disease osteoporosis is forecast to be a concern for about 232,000 residents. It is important to note that many individuals suffer from more than one of these conditions simultaneously, which compounds their suffering and the complexity of their care.
Professor Lyn March, a leading rheumatologist and medical advisor for Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA, emphasised the scale of the challenge. She stated that these figures translate to nearly one in three adults in WA living with a significant musculoskeletal disorder.
Economic Impact and the Call for Action
The repercussions extend far beyond personal health. The report estimates the total economic cost of these conditions in WA will balloon from $5.8 billion in 2023 to a staggering $7.9 billion annually by 2045. These costs encompass direct healthcare expenses, such as hospital admissions, medications, and surgeries, as well as massive indirect costs from lost productivity and premature mortality.
In response to these alarming findings, Arthritis and Osteoporosis WA is urging the state government to adopt a dedicated Musculoskeletal Health Strategy. The organisation's CEO, Helen O'Loughlin, argues that a proactive, coordinated plan is essential to manage this looming crisis. She points out that while other major health areas like cancer and mental health have formal strategies, musculoskeletal health lacks the same focused attention.
The proposed strategy would focus on several key areas:
- Early intervention and prevention programs to keep people healthier for longer.
- Improving access to multidisciplinary care, including physiotherapy and occupational therapy.
- Investing in research and data collection specific to WA's population.
- Enhancing workplace support to help people manage their conditions and remain employed.
Professor March stresses that waiting until people require joint replacements or are in constant pain is neither compassionate nor cost-effective. She advocates for a system that helps people understand their risk factors—such as obesity, injury, and family history—and empowers them with knowledge and early support to maintain their bone and joint health.
With an ageing population and rising rates of obesity, the factors driving this epidemic are clear. The report serves as a critical wake-up call for policymakers, healthcare providers, and the community. Without significant investment in prevention and early management, Western Australia faces a future where chronic pain and disability become commonplace for a huge segment of its society, with profound human and economic costs.
