Australia's road safety record has suffered a major setback, with the national road toll climbing into the 1300s for the first time in 15 years. This marks the fifth consecutive year of rising fatalities, a trend that experts warn is being driven by a specific and alarming shift in who is dying on our roads.
Vulnerable Road Users Bear the Brunt
The increase is no longer primarily coming from drivers or passengers inside vehicles, whose fatality numbers have largely plateaued. The alarming growth is now being driven by vulnerable road users, with pedestrians suffering the most dramatic spike. In the latest year, pedestrian deaths jumped from 168 to 207. The last time Australia recorded more than 200 pedestrian deaths in a single year was back in 2007.
This is a nationwide crisis, not confined to one state or territory. Every state except the Northern Territory recorded sharp increases:
- Victoria: up 6.3 per cent
- Tasmania: up 25 per cent
- Queensland: up 27 per cent
- New South Wales: up 46 per cent
- South Australia: up 50 per cent
- Western Australia: a staggering 75 per cent increase
The Vehicle Size Factor: A Clear and Present Danger
Contrary to popular belief, the rise is not attributable to pandemic after-effects or distracted pedestrians glued to their phones. In fact, data shows pedestrian fatalities have been declining in the age group most associated with phone use (8-25 years). The evidence points squarely to a third factor: the changing nature of Australia's vehicle fleet.
As cars grow in size and weight, risk is being pushed outward onto people outside the vehicle. Large vehicles, particularly SUVs and light commercial vehicles with tall, blunt front ends, are markedly deadlier for pedestrians. Research indicates being struck by a large SUV raises the risk of death by around 40 per cent compared to a smaller car. For children, the risk can be up to eight times higher.
A Monash University study over a decade ago, when pedestrian deaths were still declining, found clear evidence of this risk gap. It concluded that when a pedestrian was struck and injured, the likelihood of that injury being serious or fatal was:
- Around 20 per cent higher when the vehicle was an SUV compared to a car.
- Around 50 per cent higher when the vehicle was a commercial vehicle like a van or ute.
The authors warned that as the proportion of these larger vehicles grew, so too would the population-level risk. This prediction is now being borne out in the tragic statistics.
A Warning from America and a Call for Action
The pattern emerging in Australia uncomfortably mirrors a trajectory seen in the United States over the past 15 years, where pedestrian and cyclist fatalities have surged even as driver deaths plateaued. Associate Professor Milad Haghani, an urban risk expert at the University of Melbourne, warns that the trend will likely continue "until large vehicles dominate the fleet." He describes a self-reinforcing market where people buy larger vehicles for perceived safety, putting everyone else at greater risk.
Professor Haghani argues that governments have powerful policy levers at their disposal to nudge the market if they are serious about reducing road trauma. These include:
- Making vehicle registration fees proportional to a vehicle's impact and risk.
- Closing the luxury car tax loophole that exempts many large utes, a concession not available to other high-end vehicles.
- Scaling parking fees with vehicle size, as already implemented in cities like Paris.
- Ensuring road-violation penalties reflect the greater potential harm imposed by heavier, taller vehicles.
The rising road toll, particularly the surge in pedestrian deaths, represents a 15-year regression in Australian road safety. The data presents a clear challenge: to move beyond easy explanations and confront the role that the unchecked growth of larger, more dangerous vehicles is playing in this national crisis.
