Australian-listed ADX Energy has delivered a substantial boost to its European gas ambitions, announcing a major 31 per cent increase in the estimated resource at its key offshore project in Italy.
Significant Resource Upgrade for Sicily Channel
The company's latest assessment has lifted the best-case (P50) resource estimate for its Sicily Channel permit to 484 billion cubic feet (Bcf), up from previous calculations. The mean prospective resource now stands at an even more impressive 619 Bcf.
This update represents the first full recalibration of the Italian offshore asset since 2022, with management stating the new numbers paint a much stronger picture of the project's potential. The resource uplift stems from a fresh wave of technical analysis, incorporating reservoir parameters from ENI's nearby Lippone-Mazara onshore gas field.
Furthermore, recovery assumptions were drawn from the oil giant's recently developed Argo, Cassiopea and Gemini offshore fields, which lie within the same geological corridor and are considered direct analogues for ADX's exploration model.
New Prospects and Reduced Risk Profile
Within the permit's newly expanded boundaries, ADX has identified three new shallow biogenic gas prospects not included in the 2022 review. This brings the total number of distinct targets across the acreage to eight, several of which show clear hydrocarbon evidence from past drilling.
The updated resource table reveals even more striking figures at the extremes. The low-case (P90) volume estimate jumped 83 per cent to 188 Bcf, while the high-case (P10) scenario surged 64 per cent to a staggering 1.265 trillion cubic feet.
According to ADX, these new estimates come with a reduced risk profile. Confidence is bolstered by proven shallow gas zones intersected in legacy oil wells across the permit. By integrating historic drilling data with modern seismic analysis, geologists have developed a sharper understanding of the block's layered geology.
"We continue to develop increasing confidence regarding the exceptional potential of the permit," said ADX Energy executive chairman Ian Tchacos. "We look forward to accessing and purchasing further available seismic and well data from historic exploration within the permit in January 2026."
Strategic Timing in European Energy Crisis
The timing of ADX's resource upgrade is strategically significant. Italy is actively seeking to bolster its domestic gas supply, having only recently lifted a long-standing exploration moratorium. The region also benefits from ready-made pipeline infrastructure.
With Europe desperate for secure, non-Russian energy sources, any sizeable discovery in the Sicily Channel could attract serious strategic attention and investment.
Armed with these new findings, ADX plans to commission an independent third-party competent persons report to provide an external validation of the permit's emerging potential.
Parallel Momentum in Austrian Operations
In a parallel development, ADX recently secured a major legal win in Austria. A court ruling has cleared the way for a renewed flow test at its Welchau-1 discovery in Upper Austria, a well that stunned markets in early 2024 with a 450-metre wet gas interval.
Early analysis at Welchau pointed to a mean resource estimate of 85 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). Subsequent work suggested the pay zone might comprise mostly high-grade light oil, a far more lucrative prize than simple gas.
With the legal impediment removed, ADX can now test remaining intervals and potentially probe the deeper "Welchau Deep" play. The company has also fired the starting gun on a full-scale drilling campaign across its Upper Austrian licences, set to begin in early 2026.
This campaign includes three low-risk, shallow-gas wells slated for early 2026, positioned close to existing pipelines for quick cash flow. Later in the year, ADX plans an oil-appraisal well near its producing Anshof oil field.
Moving forward on its Sicilian front, ADX will focus on refining its subsurface model, prioritising drill-ready prospects, and cementing its revised estimates through independent verification. With more seismic and technical data expected in early 2026, the Sicily Channel story appears far from over.
