Economists are warning that a super El Niño weather event could deliver a severe shock to global food prices, with repercussions potentially lasting into 2028. The phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is expected to disrupt agricultural production worldwide, driving up costs for staple crops and exacerbating inflation pressures.
Forecasted Impact on Agriculture
According to a report from the Australian National University's Crawford School of Public Policy, the super El Niño could reduce global yields of key commodities such as wheat, rice, and corn by as much as 10-15% in the 2026-27 growing season. This would mark the most significant climate-driven supply shock since the 1972-73 El Niño, which triggered a global food crisis.
The report's lead author, Dr. Sarah Johnson, stated: "The scale of this event is unprecedented in modern records. We are looking at a potential 20% increase in global food prices within the first year, with cascading effects on energy and fertilizer markets."
Duration and Economic Consequences
The economists project that the price shocks will persist into 2028, as depleted grain reserves and damaged agricultural infrastructure take time to recover. Developing nations, particularly in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to be hit hardest, facing both higher import bills and reduced domestic harvests.
Global food prices have already risen 8% in the first half of 2026 due to preliminary El Niño conditions, according to the World Bank. The super El Niño phase, expected to peak in late 2026, could add another 12-15% to prices, the report warns.
Policy Responses and Mitigation
In response, the Australian government has announced a $500 million emergency fund to support domestic farmers and stabilize food supply chains. However, economists argue that international coordination is essential to prevent export bans and hoarding, which worsened past crises.
The report calls for the G20 to convene an emergency summit on food security, urging countries to release strategic grain reserves and invest in climate-resilient crops. "Without coordinated action, we risk a repeat of the 2008 food riots," Dr. Johnson added.
Longer-Term Outlook
While the super El Niño is expected to weaken by mid-2027, its effects on soil moisture and planting cycles could linger. The report notes that recovery in agricultural output may take two to three years, keeping prices elevated into 2028. Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity of such events, making food price volatility a permanent feature of the global economy.
