The Australian Greens are grappling with a crisis of relevance as the 2025 federal election approaches, with some political analysts suggesting the party could learn from the resurgence of Pauline Hanson's One Nation.
Greens' Decline in Polls
Recent opinion polls show the Greens' primary vote has slipped to around 10%, down from a high of 12.5% in 2022. The party has also lost ground in key inner-city seats to independents and the Labor Party. According to a recent Resolve Political Monitor, the Greens now trail One Nation in national polling, with One Nation at 11% and the Greens at 9%.
One Nation's Appeal
One Nation has capitalized on voter discontent over cost-of-living pressures, immigration, and government overreach, particularly in regional and rural areas. The party's straightforward messaging and focus on economic nationalism have resonated with working-class voters disillusioned with the major parties.
"One Nation has found a niche by tapping into the anger and frustration that many Australians feel," said Dr. Sarah Johnson, a political scientist at the Australian National University. "The Greens, on the other hand, have struggled to articulate a clear economic message beyond climate change."
Greens' Internal Divisions
Internal divisions within the Greens have further hampered their appeal. The party's left-wing faction pushes for more radical climate policies, while moderates advocate for a pragmatic approach to gain broader support. This has led to mixed messaging and policy confusion.
At the Greens' national conference in June, delegates narrowly voted down a motion to prioritize housing affordability over climate action, highlighting the tension between environmental and social issues.
Lessons from One Nation
Some Greens strategists believe the party could adopt elements of One Nation's playbook, such as focusing on local issues and using simple, emotive language. "We need to connect with everyday Australians on the issues that matter to them, like housing, jobs, and healthcare," said a senior Greens source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
However, others warn against mimicking One Nation's populist style, arguing it would alienate the Greens' core base of progressive voters.
Impact on Federal Election
As the Greens fight for relevance, their performance in the upcoming election will be crucial. The party currently holds 12 Senate seats and one House of Representatives seat. A further decline could embolden internal critics and lead to a leadership challenge.
"The Greens risk becoming irrelevant if they cannot broaden their appeal beyond inner-city elites," said Professor David Chen of the University of Sydney. "One Nation's success shows that there is a market for anti-establishment politics, but the Greens need to find their own unique voice."
The party is pinning hopes on its climate agenda, with the upcoming COP31 climate summit in Australia expected to boost environmental issues. Yet, with cost-of-living dominating the political discourse, the Greens face an uphill battle to regain momentum.
