Fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides compelling evidence that the nation's post-pandemic migration surge has decisively ended, even as political rhetoric continues to blame new arrivals for complex economic pressures like the housing crisis.
The Numbers Tell a Different Story
The latest quarterly figures reveal a sharp decline in net overseas migration. In the June quarter of 2025, net migration stood at just 50,100 people. This represents a significant drop of 59,900 individuals compared to the previous quarter and marks the lowest level since the current federal government was elected.
Demographers analysing the trend confirm this is not a blip but the start of a sustained downward trajectory. This data critically undermines claims of continuing "record levels" of migration, which often fail to account for the pandemic's distorting effect. The 2023 peak was a unique combination of delayed arrivals and extended stays for those already in the country.
Housing Crisis: Scapegoating Migrants Misses the Real Culprits
Amid rising living costs, migrants have frequently been singled out as the primary cause of Australia's housing affordability woes. However, evidence-based research paints a starkly different picture.
A 2025 study from The Australia Institute suggests the root cause may lie not in population growth but in tax policy. The research indicates that over the past decade, housing supply actually grew faster than the population, with dwelling numbers increasing by 19 per cent against a population rise of 16 per cent.
Further proof comes from the pandemic period. From March 2020 to September 2021, net migration fell into negative territory, with over 100,000 more people leaving Australia than entering. If migration were the key driver of house prices, affordability should have improved. Instead, property prices skyrocketed by 20 per cent in just 18 months.
Adding to this, a recent report by Prosper Australia found a troubling rise in vacant properties in Melbourne. Their Speculative Vacancy report showed empty dwellings jumped from 27,408 to nearly 32,000 in a single year—enough homes to house everyone on Victoria's social housing waiting list twice over.
Migration Remains Critical for Australia's Future Prosperity
Far from being an economic burden, a robust and well-managed migration program is essential to solving some of the nation's most pressing challenges. Critical workforce shortages threaten multiple sectors of the economy.
Projections indicate a shortfall of around 4,000 General Practitioners by 2028, ballooning to over 9,000 by 2048. The nursing deficit is expected to reach almost 80,000 by 2035. In the construction industry, Master Builders Australia estimates an urgent need for 130,000 additional tradespeople by 2029 to meet housing demand.
Jobs and Skills Australia has identified 67 occupations in the "technicians and trades workers" category as being in chronic, long-term shortage, accounting for about one-third of all national skills shortages.
A 'Migration State' Built on Stability
Australian National University geographer Professor Alan Gamlen describes Australia as a "migration state"—a nation built on controlled migration integrated into the very machinery of government. This long-standing, steady approach has created a system that treats migration as a normal, pre-political part of society.
"This stability has shielded it from the immigration-driven turmoil seen in Britain with Brexit and in the US with Trump," Professor Gamlen says. He notes that despite Australia having a higher proportion of foreign-born residents than either country, its public debates on the issue remain comparatively calmer, aided by both national identity and enduring state capacity.
In an era of global economic shocks, rising inequality, and social polarisation, the real challenge for Australia is not reducing migration but better managing the intersecting issues of housing, infrastructure, and institutional trust. As AMES Australia CEO Melinda Collinson argues, orderly migration is not the cause of our crises but part of the solution, and Australia must guard against simplistic narratives that seek to blame societal problems on new arrivals.
