A new Essential poll has revealed that 58% of Australian voters are open to supporting Pauline Hanson's One Nation at the next federal election, due by 2028. The survey, conducted for Guardian Australia, found that 45% of current Labor voters are considering switching to the right-wing populist party, including 12% who said they would definitely vote One Nation.
The poll highlights a growing challenge for the Labor government, which has largely viewed One Nation's surge as a problem for the Coalition. Among Coalition voters, 17% said they would definitely vote One Nation, with 51% open to it. Labor MP Mike Freelander downplayed the threat, stating that One Nation's divisive nature and lack of policies would limit its appeal.
Labor's strategy to counter One Nation focuses on economic issues. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has attacked the party for opposing 'same job same pay' legislation, penalty rate increases, and pay rises for aged care workers. Environment Minister Murray Watt also highlighted One Nation's opposition to housing reforms and cheaper medicines, targeting what he called 'battlers' considering a switch.
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist and director of polling group Redbridge, cautioned against overinterpreting the poll. He noted that potential Labor-to-One Nation voters are often turned off by the party's extreme criticism of multicultural Australia. Samaras described the typical switcher as a worker in their 40s or 50s in the care economy, retail, or hospitality, who benefits from better workplace conditions.
Labor's biggest scare from One Nation came in the Hunter region of NSW, where Hanson's candidate Stuart Bonds pushed Labor's Dan Repacholi to a 59-41 two-party preferred count. Repacholi said he would continue engaging with constituents on health and economic policies, calling Hanson's comments about Muslims 'disgusting'.
