Polls have closed in the Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry byelections, with the result in the north-west of England constituency poised to shape the future of UK politics. The approximately 70,000 voters in Makerfield, a constituency just outside Wigan, have been at the centre of national attention after Andy Burnham resigned as Greater Manchester mayor to contest the seat, hoping to return to Westminster and eventually challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party.
Intense Campaigning in Makerfield
The tight race between Labour candidate Andy Burnham and Reform's Robert Kenyon saw up to 3,000 Labour campaigners arrive in the constituency in recent days. The contest began on 14 May after MP Josh Simons stood down to allow the former cabinet minister to return to parliament following Labour's poor local election results. Burnham, a former culture secretary, faced off against Kenyon, a local plumber who struggled with public performances and faced backlash over past social media posts, including sexist comments and remarks about Carol Vorderman, which she described as "disgusting."
Historical Context and Polling
Makerfield, created in 1983, has traditionally been a safe Labour seat but has shifted away from the party over the past decade, like many post-industrial northern constituencies. In the eight wards that voted in local elections, Reform took 50.4% of the vote. In the last general election, Simons won with 45.2% of the vote, but Reform increased its share by 18%. Pre-vote polls gave Burnham a lead of three to 12 percentage points over Kenyon, though Reform faces a split on the right from the hard-right Restore Britain party, led by Rupert Lowe, which is predicted to win about 7% of the vote.
Leadership Implications
If Burnham wins, all eyes will be on his next move. Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated he would offer Burnham a "big" job in government, calling him "a huge asset to our party." However, Burnham's allies, hoping for a "coronation" where Starmer steps aside, said he is not interested in the offer, arguing that "the benefit Andy has is not having been associated with the government's failings." Allies have reportedly talked ministers out of resigning this weekend to avoid chaos. Starmer has repeatedly stated he will not stand down and will fight any leadership challenge.
Other Byelections
In Aberdeen South, the future of North Sea oil and gas dominated the contest, with the Conservatives aiming to take the seat from the Scottish National Party. The SNP is confident of holding Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
