Western Australia's pivotal role in the multi-billion dollar AUKUS security pact is under threat from a severe labour and skills crunch, with local industry leaders warning the state's energy and defence ambitions hang in the balance. The dire caution comes alongside a stark prediction from a retired British Admiral that the United Kingdom lacks the capacity to deliver its part of the submarine deal, risking total failure.
Admiral's Stark Warning: "High Probability" of UK Failure
Retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias has delivered a scathing assessment of the UK's ability to build the new SSN-AUKUS submarines, declaring there is a "high probability" the British element of the pact will fail. He argues that politicians who signed the agreement did not grasp current industrial constraints.
"Policy and money don’t build nuclear submarines — people do that, and there are not enough of them with the right level of skills and experience," Mr Mathias stated. He warned that such a failure would make the 2021 diplomatic row over cancelling French submarines "look like a non-event."
He accused Australia of showing "a great deal of naivety" and conducting insufficient due diligence on the "parlous state" of the UK's nuclear submarine program before committing billions of dollars.
WA Industry Sounds Alarm on "Present and Growing" Constraint
In Western Australia, the massive industrial upgrade planned for the Henderson defence precinct—promising around 10,000 jobs—is now facing a critical human resources challenge. The Kwinana Industries Council (KIC) has identified 2026 as the year promises must turn into action.
In a pre-Budget submission, the KIC flagged common-user infrastructure, electricity upgrades, and acute workforce shortages as top priorities. KIC chief executive David Harrison said labour shortages are no longer a future risk but a current crisis.
"Without a coordinated, whole‑of‑system response, we risk major projects being delayed, costs escalating and investment going elsewhere," Mr Harrison said. He urged Premier Roger Cook to use new State Development Act powers to fast-track vital infrastructure on the Western Trade Coast.
Political Pressure and a Defence in Progress
Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas backed concerns that progress is too slow, calling the AUKUS opportunity one WA cannot afford to let slip. "If we do miss out that would be unforgivable," he said.
The State Government, however, remains confident. A spokesman said WA, with about 6000 people already in its defence industry, is "well on the way" to building a world-class workforce for nuclear submarine sustainment. He confirmed the new State Development Act would be used to support the 'Made in WA' agenda, but gave no timeline.
The AUKUS pathway aims to see Australia acquire up to five US Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s, followed by a new jointly-built SSN-AUKUS class with the UK. Australia has already paid $1.6 billion to the US and $4.6 billion to the UK's Rolls-Royce for reactor site expansion.
Retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, a long-time AUKUS sceptic, supported Mathias's view, describing the UK's submarine fleet as being in "deep trouble" and labelling the financial injections as pouring "scarce defence dollars into two black holes."
An Australian Submarine Agency spokesperson maintained that the program is "full steam ahead," acknowledging the challenges but expressing confidence in the collective ability of the three nations to deliver.
