New polling data reveals the Albanese government faces significant political risks in the Australian Capital Territory if its proposed environment legislation fails to include strong climate protections. The findings come as the government engages in intense negotiations to pass its environmental reforms through parliament.
Voter Sentiment in Marginal Seats
According to YouGov polling commissioned by the Climate Council, 80 per cent of Canberrans want environmental impact assessments to include climate considerations under the new legislation. The survey of 3783 Australians used demographic weighting to extrapolate electorate-level results.
In the marginal seat of Bean, where Labor MP David Smith retained his position by just 350 votes in the May 2025 election, the polling indicates approximately 44 per cent of Labor voters would be less likely to support the party again if the new laws fail to protect the climate. This would translate to about 18,555 fewer first-preference votes for Labor at the next election.
Bean federal election candidate Jessie Price, who nearly defeated Mr Smith in May by erasing his 12.9 per cent margin, told The Canberra Times the polling confirms what she hears from constituents daily. "This polling shows what we know in Bean - that people want stronger action on climate and environmental protections, and they will vote for that," Ms Price said.
Government's Legislative Challenge
Environment Minister Murray Watt expressed confidence on Tuesday that the government could negotiate passage of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act and related bills by the end of this week, which marks the final parliamentary sitting period for the year.
However, Mr Watt reiterated the government's refusal to include a specific climate trigger in the legislation, telling the ABC: "We've said no to that kind of thing." He emphasized the need for "a balanced set of reforms that delivers very real wins for the environment and for business."
The government faces the challenge of navigating between competing interests, discussing potential amendments with the Greens that could strengthen climate considerations while simultaneously negotiating with the Coalition over changes sought by business groups.
Broader Political Implications
The polling reveals similar concerns in the Labor safe seat of Canberra, where MP Alicia Payne secured 37,995 first preference votes in May. The data shows 80 per cent of voters in this electorate want climate change considered in the new laws, with 44 per cent of Labor voters indicating they would be unlikely to support the party if this doesn't happen.
Ms Payne acknowledged the findings, stating she was "not surprised by this polling as I know Canberrans are deeply concerned about climate change." She highlighted the government's Safeguard Mechanism as ensuring projects align with emissions targets while committing to advocate for "the most ambitious action we can deliver."
ACT Independent Senator David Pocock said the polling reflects "more than four years of feedback from ACT residents about climate change." He noted that "Canberrans care about our climate, the overwhelming majority believe in the science and want to see ambitious action from whoever is in government."
Senator Pocock suggested the election outcome in Bean might have differed had Labor announced its approval of the North West Shelf project before the 2025 election.
Mr Smith expressed hope that final amendments would deliver "significant reform" and pass this week, while declining to comment on whether he was concerned about his political future. The government requires support from either the Coalition or the Greens to pass legislation through the Senate.
