In the often-unpredictable world of finance, getting one major market call right can be a career highlight. Getting three in a row borders on the prophetic. That's the position market commentator Dollar Bill finds himself in, having accurately forecast significant moves in uranium, silver, and the small-cap sector.
From Pariah to Powerhouse: The Uranium Revival
Back in the gloom of 2022, when uranium was largely shunned by the investment community, Dollar Bill was quietly making a contrarian case. He argued that the metal, crucial for nuclear power, was poised for a comeback as the world grappled with clean energy goals and the emerging potential of small modular reactors (SMRs).
His heresy proved prescient. Uranium prices doubled over the next two years, peaking around US$110 per pound. While prices have since moderated, they remain robust above US$80 per pound, firmly establishing uranium as a key player in the energy transition narrative.
Silver's Stellar Surge Outshines Gold
While gold often steals the precious metals headlines, Dollar Bill turned his gaze to its more industrial cousin. In May 2024, he penned a column titled "A Silver Linings Playbook," positioning silver as the indispensable modern metal, critical for solar panels, electronics, and the renewable energy boom.
Eighteen months on, that call has been spectacularly validated. Spot silver has soared approximately 180% in the past year, massively outperforming gold's 73% gain. It recently peaked above US$83 an ounce before a brief correction. Edward Meir, a senior analyst at global commodities powerhouse Marex Group, supports the view, stating industrial demand, particularly from solar, should keep silver ahead of gold.
The financial metrics tell a compelling story. Today, 1 gram per tonne of gold in a drill result is equivalent to less than 60 grams of silver, a dramatic shift from a 90:1 ratio just three years ago.
The Small-Cap Resurgence No One Saw Coming
When sentiment was at rock bottom and capital had dried up over a year ago, Dollar Bill suggested the tide was turning for the ASX's beleaguered small-cap stocks. This sector, left for dead by many, has since staged a remarkable recovery, outperforming other market segments.
The revival is palpable. Capital raisings have become livelier, IPO pipelines that were frozen solid in 2024 (a 20-year low of 29 listings) have begun to flow again, and broker playbooks are being dusted off. The combination of falling interest rates and rising risk appetite has historically breathed life into smaller companies, and this cycle appears to be following the script.
What's Next? A Swing at Lithium and Nickel
Flush with a successful track record, Dollar Bill is now looking ahead. His latest focus is on two battery metals battered by oversupply: lithium and nickel.
Lithium prices appear to have found a floor. After a brutal collapse to below US$10,000 per tonne in late 2024 and early 2025, both lithium hydroxide and carbonate prices have begun a tentative recovery, rising 25-30% over the past six months. With producers tightening supply and electric vehicle demand rebounding in key markets like China and the US, the oversupply narrative is fading.
Nickel, pummelled by a flood of Indonesian supply, is also showing signs of life. Despite short-term distortions, its fundamental role in batteries and stainless steel remains unchallenged. In just the past two weeks, spot nickel has surged more than 11%, trading back above US$15,000 a tonne—its highest level in over six months—hinting at a potential market reassessment.
Dollar Bill acknowledges the danger of a victory lap in finance. If his latest predictions for lithium and nickel prove incorrect, he'll be back at the club nursing a drink. But for now, with three major calls having connected, he's allowing himself a quiet, and well-earned, moment of reflection.
