In a significant move, forecasters at ANZ have aligned with a growing chorus of gold bulls, predicting that the precious metal could breach the psychological threshold of $US5000 per ounce. This bold projection comes as gold continues its remarkable rally, hitting yet another record high of $4955.14 on Friday morning, according to Bloomberg data.
ANZ's Bullish Outlook on Gold's Trajectory
The Big Four bank's commodities desk anticipates that gold could reach this new benchmark by June, driven by sustained investor interest. This forecast follows gold's best annual performance since 1979, with ANZ analysts pointing to geopolitical concerns and lower interest rates as key factors supporting the ongoing bull run.
Factors Fueling Gold's Ascent
Analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari noted that gold's investor base is becoming increasingly diverse, with retail and institutional investors showing strong interest alongside traditional markets like China and India. They emphasised that prices are likely to remain relatively strong throughout 2026, even as they cool from current record highs.
"Although, we expect some retracement by the end of this year as geopolitics and trade negotiations stabilise and industrial demand begins to respond," the analysts wrote in their report. "We see gold remaining relatively firmer than silver and platinum."
ETF Inflows and Market Dynamics
ANZ expects exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows to continue rising, with total holdings projected to exceed 4,500 tonnes. This institutional support underscores the metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty.
Silver's Performance and Comparative Outlook
Silver has also experienced a stellar run, nearly tripling over the past year and reaching a new record of $US96.80 on Friday. However, ANZ cautioned that while there is "scope for gains" in silver, its rise appears "somewhat stretched in the near term and lacks some of gold's enduring supports."
Global Economic Factors at Play
The forecasters highlighted recent uncertainty stemming from US President Donald Trump's relationship with the US Federal Reserve, suggesting this "may also undermine investor confidence in US assets and the global financial system." This dynamic could potentially increase the risk premium on long-term US debt.
"In this case, higher yields will not be necessarily negative for gold, but subsequently higher volatility across asset classes will be gold positive," the analysts concluded, reinforcing their optimistic outlook for the precious metal's continued strength in the coming months.
