Boxing Day is staging a fierce comeback to reclaim its status as Australia's premier discount shopping day, with budget-focused consumers predicted to spend a staggering $1.6 billion in a single 24-hour period.
Boxing Day vs. Black Friday: The Battle for Supremacy
This year's projected Boxing Day expenditure marks a significant 4.3 per cent increase compared to last year, according to data from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan. The forecast arrives amidst an ongoing debate over whether Black Friday has permanently dethroned the traditional post-Christmas sales event.
ARA chief executive Chris Rodwell stated that the powerful forecast continues the end-of-year sales momentum for retailers, who have navigated years of subdued consumer spending due to high inflation and interest rates. "Australians continue to turn out in large numbers for the Boxing Day shopping experience, drawn by the connection to trusted brands, fresh stock movement and strong seasonal value," Mr Rodwell said.
He further indicated that value-driven consumer behaviour is expected to persist into 2026, with households prioritising competitive prices and strong promotions.
Where the Money is Going: Category Breakdown
The ARA anticipates several key retail categories will see robust performance on December 26. The spending forecasts for major sectors are:
- Household goods: Forecast to hit $476 million, a rise of 4.4 per cent.
- Clothing, footwear, and accessories: Expected to reach $216 million, up 1.9 per cent.
- Department stores: Predicted to see $123 million in sales, an increase of 5.1 per cent.
Other retailing, which includes specialty and variety stores, is also set for strong growth of 6.3 per cent to $221 million. Hospitality spending is forecast to jump 6.8 per cent to $141 million.
National Spending Spree and Retailer Confidence
Over the entire week from December 25 to December 31, total spending is forecast to reach $3.83 billion, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year. The ARA expects Boxing Day alone to account for the lion's share of this total, fuelled by demand for value, post-Christmas discounts, and gift card redemptions.
On a state-by-state basis for the post-Christmas week:
- New South Wales is tipped to spend the most at nearly $1.2 billion.
- Victoria follows at $953 million.
- Queensland is projected to spend $842 million.
- Western Australia is forecast to contribute $448 million.
Retail leaders are expressing strong confidence in the traditional sales period. Myer executive chair Olivia Wirth, whose company recently recorded its best-ever Black Friday sales, told The West Australian that Christmas trade and Boxing Day remain critically important. "It's really a peak trade period... Black Friday is becoming a very important sales period for us but equally, Christmas and Boxing Day will also be similarly important as well," Ms Wirth said.
The competition from Black Friday is undeniable, with CommBank iQ data revealing Australians spent close to $24 billion over the two weeks surrounding the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. However, the latest forecasts suggest Boxing Day is fighting hard to retain its iconic status in the Australian retail calendar.
