Australians are being warned to prepare for the worst of the fuel crisis, as an expert cautions that the full impact of the Middle East conflict has yet to materialise. Defence and National Security Consultant John Blackburn told Sunrise that petrol prices and food supplies are set to suffer significantly.
Impacts expected by end of month
The crisis is expected to intensify by the end of this month as the last shipments of oil from the Strait of Hormuz run out, Blackburn said. He explained that the final oil from the Strait has reached Asian refineries and been distributed to customers, meaning the loss of 20 per cent of global supply will now be felt.
"So, what we're now going to start seeing is the impacts of that 20 per cent loss. And you're going to have 100 per cent of the world's demand trying to take what they can out of the 80 per cent supply," Blackburn said.
Government efforts and expert concerns
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been in Asia seeking to secure medium-term fuel supplies through bilateral deals, leveraging Australia's exports of fossil fuels such as oil, condensate and LNG to the region. While Blackburn praised the government's reactive measures, including subsidising industry spot prices and negotiating priority access with regional refineries, he warned that these steps are insufficient.
"That's not a long-term solution. We're going to have to reduce consumption," he said. Blackburn added that Australia has failed to prepare for this crisis for at least the last 15 years and warned that diesel will be hit hardest, affecting the entire supply chain.
Broader supply chain effects
Beyond fuel, Australians can expect shortages of chemicals and plastics exported from the Gulf region, with food packaging manufacturers already struggling to source adequate plastic materials. "You're going to see financial effects, supply chain effects that go beyond fuel and fertilisers," Blackburn warned.
Truck drivers are already feeling the pinch, with many saying they cannot continue to afford rising costs. Blackburn highlighted this as a major problem that will ripple through the economy.
