Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has denied that Labor voters are abandoning him for One Nation, despite exclusive polling that reveals a significant shift towards Pauline Hanson's party. When questioned on Wednesday about the apparent voter exodus, Mr Albanese dismissed the premise and urged caution in interpreting poll results.
“Well, you're assuming that that's the case. Polls – what they do is they state a view at a period of time, not necessarily what people vote,” Mr Albanese stated.
The Prime Minister acknowledged widespread public dissatisfaction with mainstream politics but framed it as a global phenomenon. “Quite clearly, right around the world... There is some frustration with the system and whether the system is working for people,” he said. “That’s something that we're very conscious of. It's not enough to identify an issue. What you've got to do is identify a solution.”
His remarks follow the latest Sky News Pulse / YouGov poll, which found that 14 percent of voters who supported Labor in the 2025 election have now shifted their allegiance to One Nation. The same survey shows One Nation has overtaken Labor in primary vote intention for the first time, climbing to 29 percent, while Labor has slipped to 26 percent.
Additionally, the poll revealed that 16 percent of 2025 Labor voters now regret their choice, equating to approximately one million people. In contrast, only nine percent of Coalition and One Nation voters expressed regret over their 2025 ballot decisions. One Nation now leads Labor among working-class voters, renters, TAFE-educated Australians, and those in outer metropolitan areas.
Labor Employment Minister Amanda Rishworth recently attempted to downplay One Nation's rise, characterizing it as a split on the political right rather than a direct threat to Labor. “I’m not going to get too caught up in what is really a demarcation dispute and a pretty big argument between the Liberal Party and One Nation,” she told Sky News on Sunday. “There is a pretty clear sign that One Nation people are disaffected with the Liberal Party and are moving to One Nation.”
Meanwhile, senior Liberal figures have endorsed a preference deal with One Nation after a majority of centre-right voters called for a conservative alliance. Liberal Party President Tony Abbott and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor both backed the Coalition preferencing One Nation on Tuesday. The Sky News Pulse / YouGov poll indicated that most Coalition and One Nation voters want the parties to collaborate.
In response to a potential preference deal, Mr Taylor stated he would work with “whoever” necessary to defeat Labor. “We'll work with others to get rid of a rotten Labor government,” he told reporters in Cranebrook, NSW. He added that any formal arrangements would ultimately be decided by the broader Liberal Party.
Mr Abbott earlier endorsed the idea of right-leaning parties preferencing each other, drawing a parallel to Labor and the Greens. “It makes sense for parties of the right to preference each other just as parties of the left have always done,” he told The Australian Financial Review on Tuesday. These comments represent the clearest indication yet that the Liberals will strike a deal with One Nation ahead of the 2028 election, despite resistance from some moderate MPs.
The Coalition already gave preference to One Nation in the Farrer byelection, which One Nation won despite the seat being a blue-ribbon Liberal stronghold for two decades. No federal deal has been finalized yet, as party machinations continue. Despite poor polling for the Coalition under Mr Taylor, closer ties with One Nation have exposed divisions within the moderate faction.
Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume recently rejected the need for a formal partnership with One Nation. “No, that is not on the plan, it's not part of the plan,” she told Sky News. “The plan is that we will demonstrate that the Coalition is the only alternative for Australians, the only option for Australians to get Labor out of office.” Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson has also firmly opposed the idea, declaring he would “never, ever, ever” support a Coalition government involving One Nation. Shadow housing minister Andrew Bragg similarly resisted, stating, “I’m not prepared to concede that right now… I think we should still be shooting for majority government.”
