The Coalition's primary vote in Canberra has dropped to just 18 per cent, a historic low that signals significant policy missteps and growing voter disillusionment. The latest ReachTEL poll, conducted exclusively for The Canberra Times, reveals a sharp decline from the previous quarter, with the Liberal Party bearing the brunt of the swing.
Poll Details and Voter Sentiment
The poll of 1,200 Canberra voters, taken on March 15-16, shows the Coalition's primary vote falling from 22 per cent in December to 18 per cent. Labor remains steady at 36 per cent, while the Greens have risen to 16 per cent. Independents and minor parties now command a combined 30 per cent, a record high for the territory.
According to political analyst Dr. Mark Evans from the University of Canberra, "This is a clear message from voters that the Coalition's policies are out of touch with local concerns, particularly on cost-of-living and climate action."
Impact on Federal and Local Politics
The slump has immediate implications for the upcoming ACT election in October, where the Canberra Liberals are already trailing. Federal MP for Canberra, Alicia Payne (Labor), said, "Voters are rejecting the Coalition's lack of action on housing affordability and climate change."
Shadow Minister for Canberra, Senator Zed Seselja, acknowledged the result was "disappointing" but argued that local issues, not federal policy, drove the decline. However, the poll indicates a strong correlation between dissatisfaction with federal Coalition leadership and local voting intentions.
Policy Missteps Cited
Key factors behind the drop include the Coalition's perceived inaction on rising energy prices, with 68 per cent of respondents citing cost-of-living as their top concern. Additionally, 57 per cent rated the government's climate policy as "poor" or "very poor."
"The Coalition's failure to articulate a credible net-zero plan is hurting them in progressive Canberra," said Dr. Evans. The poll also shows 45 per cent of former Coalition voters now intend to vote for independents or the Greens.
Historical Context and Outlook
The 18 per cent primary vote is the lowest recorded for the Coalition in Canberra since the Australian Capital Territory gained self-government in 1989. The previous low was 20 per cent in 2019. Political strategist John Scales noted, "If this trend continues, the Coalition risks losing its remaining foothold in the territory."
The poll has a margin of error of 2.8 per cent. The Coalition's federal counterparts are watching closely, as similar trends could emerge in other metropolitan seats ahead of the next federal election.
