US President Donald Trump has declared a ceasefire with Iran a major victory, but analysts say the terms of the deal suggest Iran has emerged as the real winner. The agreement includes sanctions relief, a $300bn rebuilding fund, and a US promise not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs. The deal comes after four months of conflict that killed more than 3,300 Iranians, including over 100 children in a girls' school.
Trump's decision to end the war marks a departure from his earlier stance and appears to sour relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was a key ally in starting the conflict. Trump criticized Netanyahu's bombing of Lebanon, saying, 'You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you’re looking for somebody.' The ceasefire is seen as a way for Trump to avoid another prolonged war like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq.
The conflict began in February when Trump launched a massive bombing assault against Iran, justified by the potential threat of Iran's nuclear program. However, critics argue the justification was thin and reminiscent of the 2003 Iraq invasion. Trump's initial strategy of achieving victory in four to five weeks proved unrealistic, and the definition of victory shifted multiple times.
Now, the focus is on the next 60 days of negotiations, which are expected to be tortuous and unpredictable. The deal is seen as a victory for Iran's regime, which has only repeated its longstanding promise to abjure nuclear weapons. Analysts suggest the best outcome would be the end of sanctions and opening Iran to outside commerce, which could dilute the regime's grip on society more effectively than bombing.
This war should have served as a lesson against intervention, but it remains to be seen whether the ceasefire holds and leads to lasting peace.
