President Trump insisted a deal with Tehran was 'close' on Monday – before his message did a 180-degree about-face within just 12 hours.
The 79-year-old 47th President of the United States of America is proving to be something of a puzzle. Does he say what he means? Does he mean what he says?
What we do know is that President Donald Trump’s world is a constantly changing one. And he’s been having a tough time lately.
A cost-of-living crisis is hurting his poll numbers. His celebratory America 250th Anniversary concert has fallen apart. He had to remove his name from the John F Kennedy Centre for the Performing Arts in Washington DC. And his 'two to three weeks … maybe more' war against Iran is stretching into its fourth month.
President Trump has been insisting that a deal with Tehran 'is close' since before the war began on February 28. He said so again on Monday morning.
'Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the USA and those that are with us,' he proclaimed.
But, perhaps not. His message did a 180-degree about-face within just 12 hours.
'I don’t care if [Iran negotiations are] over, honestly. I really don’t care,' Mr Trump told CNBC overnight. 'I couldn’t care less. If they’re over, they’re over. If they’re not … I think they took too much time.'
Divergent goals
Monday started typically enough. At 1.02am Washington DC time (3pm Monday Sydney time), the President took to social media in his accustomed belligerent fashion. 'But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively 'chirping,' at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever.'
Iran was clearly playing on his mind. And the new day brought a new twist.
'I have instructed the IDF to strike terrorist targets in Beirut,' Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu unexpectedly declared. 'We are continuing to deepen our operational activity on the ground in southern Lebanon and are eliminating Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah is on the run.'
It’s not what President Trump wanted to hear. He’d spent the past week telling the world how his negotiators had settled a 60-day agreement with Iran to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, remove its minefields and surrender its uranium. It was all supposed to be waiting on his final word of approval. Now – suddenly – Iran was saying the yet-to-be-announced deal was off.
Donald Trump did a spectacular about-face.
'Given the continuation of the Zionist regime’s crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was among the preconditions for the ceasefire, and now this ceasefire has been violated on all fronts including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiation team will stop 'dialogues and text exchanges through intermediaries',' state-controlled media announced.
Tehran went so far as to threaten a further escalation in the fighting with a deliberate move to exacerbate the chaos inflicted upon the world’s economies: 'Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait'.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, also known as the Gate of Tears, is the narrow channel between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. The Suez Canal links the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, serving as a crucial shipping shortcut between Europe and Asia. It’s also the only route by which some Saudi Arabian oil and fertiliser components are escaping the conflict zone.
That’s far worse than Sunday, when the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Which was far worse than February 28, when the Strait of Hormuz was open.
Virtually reality
On Monday afternoon Australian time (morning US time), President Trump was proclaiming yet another example of his diplomatic prowess.
'I had a conversation with Bibi Netanyahu today, asking him not to go into a major raid of Beirut, Lebanon. He turned his Troops around. Thank you Bibi!'
'I also had a conversation with Representatives of the Leaders of Hezbollah, and they agreed to stop shooting at Israel, and its soldiers. Likewise, Israel agreed to stop shooting at them. Let’s see how long that lasts — Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY.'
It was a deal that would save his impending deal. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Iran would surrender its uranium. And Trump could proclaim victory.
But the shooting didn’t stop. And Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu publicly downplayed the supposed agreement.
'He spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut,' his office said in a statement. 'This position of ours remains unchanged. Concurrently, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.'
The Monday phone call between the two partners in the Iran War may not have been as amicable as it was portrayed.
US media group Axios reports three US officials telling it that President Trump had repeatedly yelled at Prime Minister Netanyahu, calling him 'f***ing crazy' and demanding 'What the f*** are you doing?'.
'You’re f***ing crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this,' he reportedly said, according to Axios. His temper flared again later that evening (Tuesday morning Australian time).
People weren’t seeing things his way.
'The Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way. They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!!' President Trump shouted on Truth Social. They would say 'that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory', even if 'their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting 'I surrender, I surrender' while wildly waving the representative White Flag'.
They haven’t.
Lost in translation
'Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does!' President Trump insisted in his 1.02am post on Monday morning.
'Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP' he proclaimed again later that morning after the Beirut crisis had flared.
By Monday evening, he was less sure.
'They’re better negotiators than they are fighters,' he conceded to NBC News. He insisted that Iran had not formally told him the talks were off.
But he didn’t want to talk anymore anyway.
'Frankly, I thought they started to get very boring,' he told CNBC in a separate interview. 'They were giving us what we needed, but I think … they handled the negotiations poorly. It took too long.'
Apparently, Iran hadn’t offered him what he’d wanted after all.
'I think we’ve been talking too much if you want to know the truth. I think going silent would be very good, and that could be for a long time,' Mr Trump said during the NBC interview.
'It doesn’t mean we’re going to go and start dropping bombs all over there. We’ll just go silent. We’ll keep the blockade … They’re losing a fortune.'
But they’ve already lost, according to President Trump.
'The United States has completely destroyed Iran’s Military, including their entire Navy and Air Force, and everything else. Their Leadership is DEAD!'
That was last week.
'Their Navy is totally gone, 100 per cent. Their Air Force is totally gone, 100 per cent. Their military, we’ve sort of left it alone — because we think that their military is somewhat moderate.'
That’s this week.
'We’ve actually left their military alone,' the President told his daughter-in-law, Fox News presenter Lara Trump. 'People would be surprised to hear that. Because mistakes have been made in wars where you wipe out everybody, and then you have a country that for 40 years can never rebuild.'
It may also be an admission. The prolific expenditure of expensive precision weaponry during the opening months of the Iran war does not appear to have produced the advertised results.
Satellite photos reveal Iran has been digging out the collapsed entrances to its underground missile bunkers. It’s reportedly already reopened 50 out of 69 weapons caches. This includes 30 out of the 33 along the Strait of Hormuz.
The New York Times reports that US intelligence agencies have assessed that some 70 per cent of its pre-war mobile missile launchers are once again active.
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer
