By now, it is an event as regular and predictable as the tides: a Democrat wins an election, and Donald Trump claims that the election was rigged. No evidence is required, and indeed none is ever provided. Trump will make the allegation regardless.
He rallies the right-wing media ecosystem to spread the lie, convincing his followers to believe it. That this has become a repetitive spectacle, devoid of suspense, does not diminish its danger.
Targeting California
This time, his target is California. The state’s unique election rules, combined with its staunchly Democratic electorate, mean that results from last week’s primaries are still incomplete and unlikely to favor Trump.
California uses an open primary system where candidates from all parties compete on the same ballot, with the top two advancing to the November general election. One of Trump’s preferred candidates appears poised to eke out only a narrow victory, if any, in the governor’s race. Democrat Xavier Becerra leads and seems likely to face Trump-endorsed Republican Steve Hinton, who narrowly edged out another Democrat, Tom Steyer, for the second spot.
In the race for Los Angeles mayor, Trump’s pick, reality television star and political neophyte Spencer Pratt, was defeated by charismatic young progressive Democrat Nithya Raman, who will now face incumbent Democrat Karen Bass.
Predictable Accusations
As has become his habit, Trump claimed the election was unfair when it became clear he might not get his way. On Truth Social the day after the election, he wrote: “The Dumocrats are at it again! They are trying to STEAL THE GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA PRIMARY, AND THE MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES, PRIMARY, AWAY FROM TWO GREAT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. Here we go with the very late and massive numbers of MAIL IN BALLOTS.”
He has since doubled down, throwing a tantrum and walking out of an interview with Meet the Press after NBC’s Kristen Welker pushed back on his false claims. These comments preview what is likely to come in November, when Republicans may lose seats in Congress amid backlash to the Trump regime’s high prices, civil rights violations, and right-wing culture-war excesses. Every election with a Democratic victor, particularly close ones, will be declared invalid, fraudulent, and null. Victorious Democrats will likely face tedious and expensive legal battles to be duly seated. The only fair elections, it seems, are those Republicans win.
Why California’s Count Is Slow
Trump’s whining and lies about the California elections were not only predictable but actually predicted. The Golden State is notoriously slow to tally votes due to policies designed to make voting easier, which delay final outcomes. All voters receive a mail ballot, which is more labor-intensive and time-consuming to count than in-person ballots. About a quarter of those who respond wait until election day itself, further delaying the final tally. Additionally, Republican fearmongering about mail-in voting has created a partisan split: Democrats are more likely to vote by mail, while Republicans prefer speedily counted in-person polling places. As a result, initial Republican leads are often obliterated by Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots, fueling conspiracy theories and fraud allegations.
This pattern has orderly, banal, and non-conspiratorial explanations, but Democrats and state officials have long worried that the glacial speed of the count creates an opening for Trump’s lies. Governor Gavin Newsom wrote to election officials last month urging speed, but a more streamlined process might not prevent Trump from spreading lies about fraud. His objections are not grounded in facts, and there is little reason to think plainer facts could dissuade him.
The Real ‘Fraud’
What Trump and his acolytes call “fraud” in California’s elections is less about vote casting and counting and more about what they see as fraudulent claims to government, citizenship, and representation by those who disagree with them. In the governor’s race, the “fraud” is not that Tom Steyer ran a robust campaign relative to Republican Hinton, but that a progressive was allowed to run at all. In the LA mayoral contest, the “fraud” is not that Nithya Raman got the votes, but that younger, more progressive voters are granted the same voting rights and dignity as those motivated by white grievance and resentment who back Trump.
The “fraud” Trump sees is in the very concept of democracy—the idea that people who do not agree with or fawn over him might have a say. It is pointless to point out that he only claims fraud in elections he loses, because the fraud he perceives is democracy itself.
Moira Donegan is a Guardian US columnist.
