Andy Burnham’s resounding victory in the Makerfield byelection has sent shockwaves through the Labour Party, with allies of the Greater Manchester mayor urging Keir Starmer to consider an orderly transition of power. Burnham secured a majority of 9,231, nearly double that of his predecessor, and captured 54% of the vote, leaving Reform UK trailing by about 20 percentage points.
Pressure Mounts on Starmer
Speaking hours before polls closed, a Downing Street source acknowledged rare doubts about the prime minister’s future, stating, “Keir will fight on,” but adding that the size of the majority could be pivotal. In the end, Burnham’s margin was so convincing that allies hope he could be installed in No 10 within days. Louise Haigh, the Labour MP who helped run Burnham’s campaign, said Thursday night: “I hope that [Starmer] will consider an orderly and managed transition. We have said that the party is in an existential crisis and things cannot continue.”
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, described Burnham as the “only Labour politician in the country that could have pulled off that result,” calling it “an emphatic win” and “an astonishing share of the votes.” She added, “It shows that you can beat hate and division and anger and despair.”
Burnham’s Strategy and the Reform Threat
Burnham aimed not only to return to Westminster to challenge Starmer but also to demonstrate how to defeat Reform UK, even in their strongest seats. He said after the result: “We must now take this up and put this country back on the right path and bring people back together and get things working properly.” Of the 90 seats where Reform finished second to Labour in the 2024 general election, Makerfield was the seventh closest. In local elections, Reform had won more than half the vote, with Labour on just 23%. Burnham, however, reversed that trend, finishing comfortably ahead of Reform and Restore Britain combined.
Nigel Farage, the Reform leader, cannot claim he would win this seat by uniting the hard right. The Reform candidate, Robert Kenyon, secured 35% of the vote, the party’s second-highest share in any byelection, but it was not enough to overcome Burnham’s surge.
Transition Talks Intensify
Attention now turns to Westminster, where Burnham’s allies say he has the support of more than the 81 MPs needed to trigger a leadership contest. They hope ministers will persuade Starmer to agree to an orderly transition within days, avoiding a divisive internal battle. Polls suggest Labour would perform about six percentage points better with Burnham as prime minister, though even his allies acknowledge he would face the same policy dilemmas that have tripped up Starmer.
Joe Twyman, director of Deltapoll, noted: “In the short term, he may well manage a bounce in the polls if Burnham becomes prime minister, but longer term, will voters perceive him and his Labour government to have made a noticeable improvement in their lives? Or will they ultimately view him as just more of the same? Regardless, the phoney war of the Labour leadership contest is now over.”
Starmer posted a brief congratulations on social media: “Congratulations, @AndyBurnhamGM, Labour’s new MP for Makerfield. Voters chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate.”
Unique Circumstances of the Byelection
Burnham’s win was highly unusual. By running as a Labour candidate while promising to challenge the prime minister, he harnessed the full resources of the governing party while positioning himself as the change candidate. Almost every Labour MP campaigned in the constituency, with party officials knocking on some doors seven times and speaking to 60% of voters—far above the normal rate. Voter turnout was nearly 60%, higher than at the general election. The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens all lost their deposits, securing just 2.2%, 0.4%, and 0.7% of the vote respectively.
The result also delighted Rupert Lowe, Farage’s former colleague, whose Restore Britain party gained 7% of the vote, signaling a potential threat to Reform across the country.
As Labour remains in flux, senior figures are hedging their bets. Nandy said, “I think that with [Burnham] back in the top team, at the top table, helping to drive that change, I think we’ll be in a really strong position.”
