Nearly a decade after the Brexit referendum, a detailed analysis of the key promises made by the Leave campaign shows that only a small fraction have been fully realised, while many others remain unfulfilled or have been quietly abandoned.
The £350m NHS Promise
One of the most iconic pledges was the claim on the side of a campaign bus that leaving the EU would free up £350 million per week to be spent on the National Health Service. According to the UK Statistics Authority, this figure was misleading, and the promise has not been kept. While the government has increased NHS funding, it has not been directly linked to Brexit savings, and the Office for Budget Responsibility has noted that leaving the EU has weakened public finances.
Bendy Bananas and Other EU Red Tape
Leave campaigners frequently cited EU regulations on bendy bananas as an example of unnecessary bureaucracy. In reality, EU rules allowed curved bananas but set standards for marketing. After Brexit, the UK has retained many EU regulations, including those on fruit grading, and the bendy banana myth persists as a symbol of exaggerated claims. The UK has not significantly reduced overall regulatory burdens, with many EU-derived laws remaining in place.
Trade Deals and Economic Prosperity
Promises of swift, lucrative trade deals with countries like the US, Australia, and New Zealand have only partially materialised. A deal with Australia was signed in 2021, but negotiations with the US stalled under the Biden administration and have not resumed. A New Zealand deal was also concluded in 2022, but the overall impact on UK trade has been modest, with the Office for Budget Responsibility estimating a 15% long-term reduction in trade intensity compared to staying in the EU.
Control of Borders and Immigration
The Leave campaign argued that Brexit would allow the UK to ‘take back control’ of its borders and reduce immigration. While the UK now has a points-based system, net migration has actually increased, reaching record levels in 2022 and 2023, driven by non-EU arrivals. The government's own Migration Advisory Committee has stated that the new system has not reduced overall numbers.
Sovereignty and Laws
Another key promise was that the UK would be free to make its own laws without EU interference. While the UK has repealed the European Communities Act 1972 and can now diverge from EU rules, in practice, many sectors have chosen to align with EU standards to maintain market access, particularly in financial services and manufacturing. The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Act 2023 aimed to remove or replace thousands of EU laws, but the government has opted to retain the vast majority.
Fishing Rights
‘Take back control of our waters’ was a rallying cry for Brexit supporters. The UK has left the Common Fisheries Policy and now negotiates annual fishing quotas independently. However, the industry has faced challenges, including a reduction in quota for some species and trade friction with the EU. Many fishermen have expressed disappointment, saying the benefits have not matched expectations.
Conclusion
According to a study by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, of the 12 major promises made during the referendum campaign, only three can be considered fully achieved: leaving the EU itself, ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and no longer contributing to the EU budget. The remaining nine, including the £350m for the NHS, have either been partially fulfilled or not kept at all. The legacy of these unfulfilled promises continues to shape public debate about the success of Brexit.
