The Pacific region is facing a severe drug and HIV crisis that is rapidly escalating, according to security and health experts. Connor Graham, a Pacific Islands expert from the Lowy Institute, warns that the illicit drug trade, which has devastated Fiji and led to the world's fastest-growing HIV rates, is now spreading to neighboring island nations popular with Australian tourists.
Traces of methamphetamine have been found in wastewater in Tonga, while so-called "narco-subs" have washed ashore in the Solomon Islands and the Northern Pacific. Police have also conducted drug busts in French Polynesia. "These countries haven't been hit as hard as Fiji yet, but they're showing the warning signs," Graham told news.com.au. "Those drugs showing up in the wastewater ... that's a sign that it's in the community. We're seeing some low amounts of HIV and tuberculosis in Solomon Islands, in Tonga, much lower than Fiji, but this is how Fiji looked in 2019."
Fiji's HIV Outbreak Declared National Crisis
In January, Fiji's health minister declared an HIV outbreak, calling it a "national crisis." According to UNAIDS, over 1% of Fiji's 937,000 people are HIV positive. The disease disproportionately affects young people, with two-thirds of cases involving those under 30. The infection rate among pregnant women is 3.1%. Experts blame unsafe drug use, including practices like "bluetoothing" or "hotspotting," where users share blood after injecting drugs.
Graham says demand from Australia and New Zealand drives the drug trade. The route from the Americas to these nations is now known as the Pacific Narco-Highway. "The end goal of drugs transiting the Pacific is not to finish up in Fiji. There's just a little bit of leaking on the way," he said. "They want to get these drugs to Australia and New Zealand where the price is as high as anywhere in the world and the profit margins are enormous." In Australia, a gram of cocaine fetches between $200 and $400, while meth can go for $250 to $600.
Impact on Tourism
The crisis contrasts sharply with the region's reputation as a tropical paradise. Tourism Fiji reported record March arrivals, with 71,765 visitors, including 30,964 Australians—a 17% year-on-year increase. Australians also accounted for 19% of international visitors to Tonga last year. However, the spreading drug and HIV crisis threatens the tourism industry these nations rely on.
Australia's Moral Obligation
The Australian Federal Police have seized 17 tonnes of illicit drugs in the Pacific so far this year, more than triple the amount seized in all of last year. In February, French police found $1.5 billion worth of cocaine on a boat headed to Australia. In March, two tonnes of cocaine were found on an abandoned sailboat in Vanuatu. Major drug busts in the South Pacific jumped from three in 2023 to 25 in 2025.
Graham says Australia has a moral and strategic obligation. "Australia is happy to fund a lot of climate and green initiatives in the Pacific but doesn't do a lot about its emissions. It's similar with the drug trade. It's Australia and New Zealand's demand that's causing this. The Pacific is being lumped with the issues, and we might fund policing or HIV initiatives, but there's a real desire for us to address our demand side in Australia."
Technological Challenges
Associate Professor Jose Sousa-Santos from the University of Canterbury says technology has made it easier for criminal networks to move drugs undetected. Cartels use narco-subs, drones, encrypted communications, and cryptocurrencies. "The technological transformation has altered the balance between traffickers and law enforcement. Technologies that allow criminal networks to operate discreetly are especially challenging in Pacific Island countries with limited resources," he said.
He warns the drug trade is a direct threat to regional security, penetrating institutions, distorting economies, and damaging social fabric. "What begins as movement of cocaine or meth quickly becomes a wider security problem: local drug markets emerge, corruption risks increase, violence becomes common, and health systems are under enormous pressure."
Stigma and Fear
Renata Ram, who has worked with UNAIDS in Fiji for nine years, says between 2010 and 2024, new HIV diagnoses in Fiji increased by over 3000%. She recounts the story of a young mother who did not disclose her HIV status during pregnancy due to fear of stigma. Months after giving birth, her baby developed serious health complications and eventually died. "The mother was carrying enormous shame and isolation. She was not a bad person or a careless mother. She was afraid. Stigma and discrimination remain some of the biggest barriers in the HIV response," Ram said.
The epidemic in Fiji is now on par with some sub-Saharan African nations. In Papua New Guinea, authorities believe three tonnes of meth may have been stored last year, destined for Australia and New Zealand. International drug cartels have established roots across the Pacific, exploiting limited policing and weak governance. Australia has committed $400 million over five years to its Pacific Policing Initiative, focusing on training and law enforcement, and is working with Colombia and Mexico to target criminals at the source.
