Nigel Farage and Reform's Makerfield byelection candidate, Rob Kenyon, were seen driving away after casting their votes on Thursday. The image, captured by photographer Victoria Jones, symbolizes a campaign that has left much to be desired. Reform's grand strategy is becoming increasingly clear: field terrible candidates and then lose. Marina Hyde, in her analysis, notes that the unstoppable Nigel Farage appears increasingly stoppable in the wake of Makerfield. Meanwhile, the actual prime minister, Keir Starmer, has gone into hiding.
Farage in Bunker Mode
You might notice Keir Starmer is in full bunker mode, but after this Makerfield result, why isn't Nigel Farage? Why isn't he ranting madly at his generals, refusing to admit that everything that went wrong for Reform here flowed directly from his personal character? It is going to keep happening because people do not change. Nigel will always be Nigel.
Nobody fetishizes plain speaking like Farage, so we must honor that and observe that Reform really messed up. Makerfield is among the party's top 10 target seats for a general election, yet strategists decided to field another inadequate liability. They simply could not be bothered to check his past social media activity, which proved a turn-off, especially for women. Rob Kenyon had said, "I'm sexist, sorry but I am." Unsurprisingly, women did not feel inclined to vote for him. Kenyon will likely return to his plumbing rounds next week. So, ladies of Makerfield, ensure your husband is home to decide if you really want your sink unblocked. It might be cheaper to replace it.
Reform Losing Votes to an Insurgent Right-Wing Party
It would take a heart of stone not to laugh at the fact that Reform is now losing votes to an insurgent party to its right. Restore exists only because Nigel could not handle light strategic criticism from Rupert Lowe. Nigel is a diva who has huge fallouts with colleagues and allies. When Reform removed the whip from Lowe last year, a party spokesperson gibbered, "This is what happens when you mess with Nigel." Counterpoint: the Makerfield result is what happens when you mess with Nigel. Think of it as a flowchart where taking the "yes" fork on "did you fail to bend the knee?" always leads to Nigel having a meltdown.
The vanishingly small combined tally for the Conservatives, Greens, and Lib Dems suggests the Makerfield byelection was a great night for Anyone-But-Reform. Just as Own Goal became England's top scorer, Tactical Voting could become the leading political preference in the UK. We do not have a perfect electoral system, but it is ours. Despite insultingly mendacious campaign leaflets from some Makerfield players, voters who do not love anyone are capable of working out who to vote for to keep out those they hate. Often, those are marching under Farage's Reform banner. It is poignant that Nigel sneers at people who lament polarization, because he is getting really screwed by it. He is unfortunately very polarizing.
Farage's Thin Skin
Another increasingly noticeable thing about Farage is his thin skin. He spent the first part of this campaign in sulky seclusion after people found out about him taking a totally normal personal gift of £5 million from a Thailand-based crypto billionaire. When he finally emerged to talk about it, he could not keep his nuclear irritation under wraps. Commentator Dominic Lawson recalled Farage's reaction to a mild joke at some Spectator awards last winter, describing his face turning white before he shouted, "Why don't you go f*** yourself?" The more salient question for Farage might be, "Why do you keep f***ing yourself?"
Starmer's Bunker and Burnham's Victory
Let us leave Farage there and consider the atmosphere in Starmer's Downing Street bunker. A few days ago, Starmer graciously indicated he was minded to give Andy Burnham a cabinet job. This felt like Lord Cardigan offering the rank of half-colonel to the Russian commander 10 minutes before the Charge of the Light Brigade. The sheer strength of Burnham's victory suggests options have evolved. This morning, you could hear Burnham outriders breaking the glass on the phrase "orderly and managed transition." How many times have we heard "orderly transition" in the past decade? There is nothing orderly about being on the brink of our seventh prime minister in 10 years. The mad bastards of our political class are at it again, assuring us we will get not just a different prime minister, but a different kind of prime minister.
Back in 2019, Boris Johnson promised to be "a different sort of prime minister." Rishi Sunak explained he would be a different kind of prime minister: "It doesn't have to be this way. I won't be this way." Then Starmer declared he was "doing government differently." We have been hurt before. But this morning, allies of Burnham are explaining that he, too, will be a very different kind of prime minister. One that people do not blame for the problems in their lives that are not being solved by politics? Good luck with that.
