The United Nations has issued a stark warning for the world to prepare for the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is expected to bring extreme weather conditions in the coming months. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80 percent probability of El Nino developing between June and August, significantly raising the risk of droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves.
El Nino Conditions Developing
El Nino, a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months. The WMO's latest update indicates a pronounced shift toward El Nino conditions, with probabilities reaching 80 percent for June through August. By November, the likelihood of El Nino developing is near or above 90 percent, with most models suggesting it will be at least moderate and possibly strong.
Global Impacts and Warnings
WMO chief Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for preparedness, stating that El Nino could exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall while increasing the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. Even a moderate El Nino makes certain weather and climate extremes more likely. The last significant El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record, followed by 2024 reaching an all-time high at around 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described El Nino as an urgent climate warning, urging the world to take decisive action. "The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," he said. Guterres called for ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.
Temperature and Rainfall Forecasts
The WMO reports that for June to August, nearly all parts of the globe are projected to experience above-normal temperatures. This increases the risk of compounding hazards in some regions and accelerating drought conditions where rainfall is reduced. Regional climate centers predict below-normal rainfall during the critical June-September rainy season in the northern Greater Horn of Africa, below-average monsoon rainfall in South Asia, and drier and warmer summer conditions in Central America.
Ocean and Atmospheric Indicators
In late April to mid-May, sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific approached El Nino thresholds, with sub-surface temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average. The Southern Oscillation Index, the atmospheric component of El Nino, is also consistent with the phenomenon developing. While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events, it can amplify their effects due to warmer oceans and atmosphere providing more energy and moisture for extreme weather.
Preparedness and Early Warning Systems
Saulo highlighted the cascading impacts of El Nino, from climate variability to effects on global trade, economy, and security. She stressed the importance of advance warning to guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, water management, energy, and health. Currently, 128 countries have multi-hazard early-warning systems, with the UN aiming for universal coverage by the end of 2027.
Hurricane and Cyclone Activity
During the northern hemisphere summer, warm waters associated with El Nino can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while hindering their development in the Atlantic Ocean. This dual effect underscores the complex regional variations in weather patterns influenced by El Nino.
The WMO's forecasts will become more accurate as the onset of El Nino approaches, with next month's outlook expected to provide clearer details on its strength and timing. The organization continues to monitor conditions closely to provide timely warnings and support global preparedness efforts.
