Australia's COP31 Bid Under Scrutiny Over Fossil Fuel Exports
Prominent climate economist Tim Buckley has issued a stark warning that Australia's bid to co-host the COP31 climate summit with Pacific nations is at risk of being undermined by the country's continued expansion of fossil fuel exports. Speaking at a National Press Club event, Buckley, director of the Australia Institute's Climate & Energy Program, argued that Australia cannot credibly lead global climate negotiations while simultaneously approving new coal and gas projects.
Buckley pointed to the contradiction between Australia's net-zero emissions by 2050 target and its status as one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. He noted that Australia's fossil fuel exports generate roughly three times the domestic emissions, making the country's overall carbon footprint among the highest per capita globally.
The Challenge of Co-Hosting COP31
Australia and Pacific island nations are vying to co-host the 2026 United Nations climate conference (COP31). However, Buckley stressed that the bid requires genuine climate leadership, not just diplomatic maneuvering. 'You cannot be a climate leader and a fossil fuel expansionist at the same time,' he said. 'The Pacific nations are on the front line of climate impacts, and they will expect Australia to walk the talk.'
Buckley's comments come as the Albanese government faces pressure from environmental groups and some Pacific leaders to halt new fossil fuel projects, including the controversial Santos Barossa gas project off northern Australia. The government has defended its gas-led recovery and energy security policies, arguing that gas is a transition fuel.
Economic and Political Implications
The economist highlighted the economic risks of continued fossil fuel dependence, noting that global demand for coal and gas is expected to peak within this decade. 'Australia is sleepwalking into a stranded asset crisis,' Buckley warned. 'We need a national debate about how we transition our export industries and ensure a just transition for workers and communities.'
He called for a comprehensive plan to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, which the Australia Institute estimates at over $11 billion per year, and redirect investment toward renewable energy and green hydrogen. Buckley also urged the government to adopt a 'climate test' for new fossil fuel projects, similar to the one proposed by the International Energy Agency.
Pacific Island Perspectives
Pacific island nations, which are among the most vulnerable to climate change, have been vocal about the need for Australia to curb its fossil fuel exports. Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka has previously stated that Australia's climate credibility is 'on the line' if it continues to approve new coal and gas mines. Buckley echoed this sentiment, saying that Australia's reputation in the region depends on aligning its domestic policies with its international climate commitments.
The COP31 bid is seen as a test of Australia's commitment to the Pacific 'family' and its role as a regional leader. Buckley argued that co-hosting the summit could be a 'game-changer' for Australian climate policy, but only if accompanied by concrete action to reduce emissions from fossil fuel exports.
Government Response and Next Steps
The Australian government has welcomed the COP31 bid and has committed to increasing climate finance for the Pacific. However, it has stopped short of imposing a moratorium on new fossil fuel projects. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has said that Australia will meet its climate targets through its existing policies, including the Safeguard Mechanism and the Capacity Investment Scheme.
Buckley remains skeptical, arguing that these measures are insufficient to address the scale of the challenge. 'We are in a race against time,' he said. 'Every new coal mine or gas field locks in decades of emissions that will make it harder to meet our Paris Agreement commitments.' He called on the government to set a clear timeline for phasing out fossil fuel exports and to work with industry and unions on a just transition plan.
The debate over Australia's fossil fuel exports is likely to intensify as the COP31 decision approaches in 2024. With the world's attention on Australia's climate leadership, the outcome of this debate will have far-reaching implications for the country's international standing and its ability to secure the COP31 co-host role.
