A new report has concluded that China is the clear winner of the military escalation in the Middle East under former President Donald Trump, as the United States' focus on the region allowed Beijing to expand its influence and economic footprint.
Report findings
According to the study published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China capitalized on the US military campaign in the Middle East, particularly the confrontation with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, to strengthen its position as a global power. The report notes that while the US spent billions on military operations, China focused on trade deals and infrastructure projects.
"China was the clear beneficiary of the Trump administration's Middle East policy," said the report's lead author, Dr. Emily Zhang. "The US got bogged down in a costly military posture, while China quietly secured energy supplies and built economic alliances."
Economic gains
The report highlights that China's imports of oil from the Middle East increased by 15% during the period of heightened tensions, as Beijing negotiated long-term contracts with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, US energy companies lost market share due to sanctions and instability.
Furthermore, China's Belt and Road Initiative saw accelerated investment in ports and railways across the region, including a $2 billion deal to develop a strategic port in Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz.
Military posture
The US military presence in the Middle East peaked at over 80,000 troops in 2020, according to the report. This diverted resources from the Indo-Pacific, where China was expanding its naval capabilities. The report estimates that the US spent approximately $1.7 trillion on Middle East wars and operations since 2001, with a significant portion under Trump.
"The opportunity cost was enormous," said Zhang. "Every dollar spent on Middle East conflict was a dollar not spent on countering China's rise."
Strategic implications
The report warns that the US's overcommitment in the Middle East has allowed China to become the dominant economic power in the region, with trade volumes surpassing those of the US by 2025. It calls for a rebalancing of US foreign policy toward Asia.
"The US cannot afford to ignore the strategic gains China has made," the report states. "A more focused approach is needed to protect American interests."
