The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has officially declared that an El Niño event is now underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is linked to hotter and drier conditions for Australia, and the bureau warns that climate change could amplify its effects, including increased risks of extreme heat and bushfires.
El Niño Confirmed
In its latest update, the BoM stated that El Niño is now active because the atmosphere is responding to higher-than-average sea surface temperatures. The east-to-west trade winds are weakening, and pressure and cloud patterns are consistent with El Niño conditions. Forecasts indicate a strong or very strong event, though the bureau notes that strength does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate.
Potential Impacts on Australia
Past El Niño events have led to lower winter and spring rainfall, particularly in eastern Australia, higher daytime temperatures in the south, and increased frost risk due to clearer skies. However, the bureau cautions that in a warming climate, past patterns are less reliable predictors. El Niño is also associated with extreme weather globally, including increased bushfire risk in Australia and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.
Climate Change Amplification
Felicity Gamble, the BoM's technical lead for extended prediction, emphasized that we are in unprecedented conditions due to global ocean heat. The rise in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific has been rapid, and the event is emerging in a world that is 1.5°C hotter. Climate change is expected to amplify anticipated impacts such as heat and fires. However, recent rainfall may provide a somewhat favorable starting point.
International Declarations
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency have already declared El Niño, though they use slightly different methods and thresholds. Climate experts warn that global heating is supercharging El Niño-related weather extremes, leading to hotter temperatures, fiercer droughts, and worse flooding. A record warm year for the planet is expected next year.
Dangerous Double Act
The Climate Council described El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels as a dangerous double act for Australia. CEO Amanda McKenzie warned that the double whammy of climate pollution and El Niño will hit many hard, with farmers already facing drought conditions and urban bushland fringes at greater fire risk.
