Poor Start to 2026 Snow Season
Australia's snow season has begun poorly this year, with maximum snow depths declining by around 30% since the middle of last century. Ski resorts are struggling to attract visitors and keep lifts running, affecting local businesses, alpine communities, and families planning school holiday trips.
Climate Drivers Behind the Snow
According to climate expert Andrew Watkins, four main climate drivers shape Australia's alpine weather: El Niño/La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and global warming. El Niño typically brings drier and warmer weather, reducing snow. La Niña brings more snow but can cause warm rain. A positive IOD means less winter rain and snow, while a negative IOD brings more snow. A positive SAM brings weather systems closer to Australia, while a negative SAM draws cold air from Antarctica.
Current Conditions: El Niño and Positive SAM
This year, an El Niño, positive SAM, and neutral IOD are creating a drier and warmer winter. Ski resorts face warmer daytime temperatures, rain, and warm soils that melt snow. Artificial snow has helped, but humidity has sometimes prevented its production. As of July 7, Spencers Creek had only 35cm of snow, and Mount Hotham just 28cm.
Historical Comparisons
Similar poor starts occurred in 1957, 1967, 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023. On July 9, 2015, less than 5cm of snow was at Spencers Creek. In 2023, Hotham had 88cm but that was its maximum for the season, well below the long-term average peak of 116cm.
Long-Term Decline Due to Global Warming
The length of the snow season, snow depth, and area of snow cover are all shrinking. Global warming, driven by fossil fuel burning, is reducing snowfall and changing alpine landscapes. The world has warmed by 1.44°C and Australia by 1.59°C since the early 20th century. Climate change is overtaking traditional climate drivers. If greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed, the snow season may disappear. However, abandoning fossil fuels can improve future winters.
