UN Halts Evacuation Plan After Projectile Strike
The United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) suspended its plan to evacuate stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, following a projectile attack on a vessel off the coast of Oman. The British military reported that a ship was struck, though it was not part of the UN-backed evacuation effort. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez stated that the evacuation would remain on hold until safety guarantees for ships on the list and in the region could be confirmed.
Iran Threatens Ships Using Alternative Routes
Iran's Persian Gulf strait authority, a new government agency controlling shipping in the strait, warned on social media that transit outside its designated routes would not be covered by safe passage guarantees. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy issued a similar warning, calling the new route established by Oman and the IMO "unacceptable and completely dangerous." The IRGC stated that the only authorized route is the one declared by Iran, and violators would be dealt with.
Impact on Global Oil Markets and Peace Talks
The opening of an alternative passage through the Strait of Hormuz could relieve pressure on the global economy and reduce Iran's leverage in peace talks with the United States. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting the Gulf, emphasized Washington's commitment to the new route. Oil prices briefly dipped below $73 per barrel, indicating market optimism. However, traffic through the strait, while increasing, remains well below prewar levels. According to S&P Global, 78 transits occurred on Wednesday, compared to a daily prewar average of 130 or more.
Details of the Attack and Regional Tensions
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that the attacked vessel sustained damage but no injuries or environmental effects were noted. The incident followed Iran's threats against ships using the new route. On Wednesday, the IRGC warned a tanker over the radio, with a soldier stating, "You are in range of my missiles and maybe (I) fire on you," according to private security firm Ambrey. Meanwhile, fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants threatened the wider truce, with Lebanon reporting five deaths from Israeli strikes.
Shipping Traffic and Evacuation Efforts
Oil tankers, including the Stoic Warrior, sailed along the UAE and Oman early Thursday, using a route laid out by Oman and the IMO. North of this route is a corridor where ships moved freely before the war, transporting about a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. Iran mined that passage after the US and Israel attacked on 28 February. Last week, 125 vessels crossed the strait, up from 33 the previous week, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Shipping company Maersk reported that its container ship, the Maersk Baltimore, and another chartered vessel made it out on Thursday.
US and Iran Continue Peace Negotiations
The US and Iran are still debating terms of an interim peace deal, including shipping through the strait and the future of Iran's uranium stockpile. Under a memorandum of understanding signed last week, both sides have 60 days to finalize details. Rubio met with Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers in Bahrain, assuring them that their interests would be protected. Bahrain's foreign minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, stressed that it was "critically important that Iran adheres to its obligations."
