The Illawarra Hawks are on a remarkable charge towards the NBL playoffs, but their momentum faces its sternest examination on Thursday night. After two convincing victories, the Hawks hit the road to take on the formidable South East Melbourne Phoenix in Melbourne, a clash that could define their season.
The Stakes Could Not Be Higher
Sitting with an 8-13 record, the Hawks have a golden opportunity to close the gap on the sixth-placed Tasmania JackJumpers. A third consecutive win would be a massive statement and thrust Justin Tatum's resurgent side firmly into finals contention. However, history is against them; the home team has won the last five encounters between these two rivals.
The season series is split. The Phoenix delivered a brutal 116-76 defeat to Illawarra in Round 5 in Melbourne, despite a standout 22-point, 11-rebound, five-block effort from JaVale McGee. The Hawks gained revenge in Wollongong in Round 11 with a thrilling 113-109 overtime victory, powered by a franchise-record 42 points from guard QJ Peterson.
Key Matchups: Rebounding vs. Three-Point Barrage
This game presents a classic clash of styles. The second-placed Phoenix (15-7) are the NBL's most potent offensive force, leading the league in scoring (97.8 points per game) and assists (22.0). They also attempt and make more three-pointers than any other team, averaging 35.9 long-range attempts and hitting 12.5 per game.
Phoenix captain and MVP candidate Nathan Sobey, averaging 22.0 points, is in career-best form at 35. He's supported by sharpshooters like centre Jordan Hunter (shooting 52% from the field) and former Hawk Angus Glover, who torched his old club for 26 points in their first meeting.
However, the Hawks hold a decisive advantage on the glass. Illawarra leads the NBL in total rebounds (45.1) and defensive rebounds (32.0). Conversely, South East Melbourne is the league's worst defensive rebounding team (25.2 per game), though they lead in offensive boards (16.1).
"We definitely want to keep him off the glass," Hawks coach Justin Tatum said of Phoenix energiser John Brown III, whose offensive rebounding creates second chances. The plan revolves around McGee and the returning Sam Froling controlling the paint. Froling has averaged 15.0 points and 9.3 rebounds in his three games back from injury.
What the Hawks Must Do to Win
For Illawarra to pull off an upset, several boxes must be ticked. Firstly, their rebounding dominance must translate into limiting Phoenix second-chance points. The Hawks have lost their last eight games when losing the rebound count.
Secondly, they must find an answer for Sobey's scoring prowess and disrupt the Phoenix's perimeter rhythm. Finally, they need another big performance from their stars. QJ Peterson must be impactful, and the twin towers of McGee and Froling need to exploit their interior scoring advantage; the Hawks already lead the league in points in the paint (46.3 per game).
The game, tipped off at 7:30pm at the State Basketball Centre, also features individual milestones. Hawks guard Tyler Harvey is just four three-pointers away from 500 for his career, while teammate Dan Grida needs four points to reach 600.
With key players back and confidence growing, the Illawarra Hawks that will take the court look vastly different from the team that struggled early in NBL26. Thursday night's result will reveal if their playoff push is a genuine threat or a fleeting moment of form.
