A comprehensive analysis of every penalty shootout in FIFA World Cup history has revealed a clear advantage for the team that takes the second kick. According to data compiled by football statisticians, the team shooting second has won 21 out of 35 shootouts, a 60% win rate.
Historical Data and Trends
The study, which examined all 35 shootouts from the first in 1982 to the most recent in 2022, shows that the second-kicking team's success rate is consistent across decades. In the 1990s, second teams won 5 of 8 shootouts; in the 2000s, 7 of 12; and in the 2010s, 6 of 10. The trend suggests a psychological or tactical edge.
Dr. Paul McGrath, a sports psychologist at the University of Melbourne, explained: "The team kicking second often benefits from reduced pressure, as they know exactly what they need to achieve. The first-kicking team sets the target, but the second can react."
Key Factors Behind the Advantage
Several factors contribute to this phenomenon. First, the second-kicking team has the opportunity to observe the first team's penalties, including the goalkeeper's tendencies. Second, in sudden-death rounds, the second team always knows the score. Third, historical data shows that the first kicker misses more often under the weight of expectation.
Notable examples include the 1994 final, where Brazil shot second and beat Italy, and the 2006 final, where Italy shot second and defeated France. However, there are exceptions, such as the 2018 final where France shot first and won.
Implications for Future Tournaments
This statistical edge has sparked debate about whether the coin toss before a shootout is fair. Some analysts suggest that the team winning the toss should choose to kick second. Currently, the winner of the toss can choose to kick first or second, but many opt for first, believing it sets the tone.
FIFA has not commented on the findings, but the data provides a strategic insight for teams preparing for knockout stages. As the World Cup expands to 48 teams in 2026, more shootouts are likely, making this knowledge increasingly valuable.
