The Liberal Party finds itself in a predicament reminiscent of Florence, the cumbersome machine that became stuck twice in a tunnel during the Snowy 2.0 project, once opening a sinkhole and once wedged in rock. Two new polls published over the weekend document the party's deepening crisis, with the Coalition's primary vote falling to 17% in Newspoll and 18% in Redbridge.
Coalition Vote Nears Minor Party Levels
The Coalition's combined vote is now only 4 points ahead of the Greens, signaling a potential decline to minor party status. While attention has focused on a drop in One Nation's support and Labor's rise, the Coalition's struggles are equally significant. Despite a leadership switch to Angus Taylor, the party has failed to reverse its fortunes.
Taylor has faced difficulties, including a muddle over multiculturalism last week, and appears uncomfortable in the constant public role required of an opposition leader. However, a quick change to Andrew Hastie may not provide a solution. Hastie entered parliament in 2015, a few years after Taylor, but has less senior frontline experience. While he can be a strong performer when prepared, his political resilience remains untested after attacks related to his testimony against Ben Roberts-Smith.
Economic Message Fails to Resonate
Taylor is pushing a classic Liberal economic agenda, traditionally the party's strength, but the message is not connecting with a disgruntled electorate. Many voters have already written off the leader. Frontbencher Melissa McIntosh has suggested a rebrand, telling Sky on Monday: "I think it's time for the Liberal party to rebrand itself. Some people think that we're stuck in the past and our policies need to resonate with the Australia of today and the future." She called for revisiting the party's values, messaging, and communications, warning that ignoring poor polls is not an option.
Liberals Discard Past, Face Wedge Issues
The party is tossing overboard its past like a sinking ship discarding ballast. Peter Dutton has been thoroughly trashed, and Taylor has criticized the Liberals' COVID record, saying on Monday: "I think during COVID we allowed big government to become accepted ... we needed to come out of COVID with a strong plan to pare back on both spending and the role of government in people's lives." This overlooks that federal COVID spending, while excessive in retrospect, kept many people and businesses afloat.
The Liberals face multiple wedge issues. They are unsure how to respond to One Nation, with Hastie refusing to "bend the knee" to insurgents while some Liberals seek accommodation. Taylor's language varies to avoid offending One Nation supporters, stating: "I never attacked One Nation voters, and I never would. I never will." The party is caught between attracting back voters who fled to One Nation and winning over small-l liberals who backed the teals—a near-impossible ideological and policy balancing act.
Teal Success Compounds Liberal Decline
The success of teal independents in taking Liberal seats has been a major factor in the party's parlous position. In Kooyong, Monique Ryan defeated potential future leader Josh Frydenberg. If Frydenberg had held the seat, he would likely have become leader after the 2022 or 2025 election. For any revival, the Liberals need to win back urban seats, but the teals are now substantially dug in.
The teal wave has been hailed as a refreshing feature of democracy, with free-thinking independents, though some are now forming a new party. However, it has also contributed to the decline of a major party of government and, indirectly, to the rise of One Nation. For Liberals looking on the bright side, Florence eventually got out of her predicament. A recent Snowy Hydro video shows her moving. Taylor can only hope for a similar escape.
