The war in Ukraine has reached a grim and protracted stalemate, with the path to peace now obstructed not only by the irreconcilable demands of the warring nations but also by clumsy interference from the world's most powerful mediator.
A Flawed Proposal Hardens Battle Lines
The latest US-backed peace initiative, a reported 28-point plan championed by President Donald Trump, has spectacularly failed to deliver on its promises. Instead of bridging divides, the proposal has served only to entrench the existing positions, adding fuel to an already intense fire.
On one side, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains intractable. During a recent trip to Kyrgyzstan, he unequivocally stated that Russia "will stop combat operations" only "if Ukrainian forces leave the territories they hold." He made it clear that Moscow intends to permanently annex Crimea, Donbas, and other currently occupied territories, threatening to "achieve it by military means" if necessary, regardless of the immense human and economic cost.
An Impossible Dilemma for Kyiv
For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, acquiescing to Russia's land grab is not an option. Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy's former chief of staff, emphasised the impossibility of such a concession, noting that "Not a single sane person today would sign a document to give up territory." Such a move is explicitly prohibited by the Ukrainian constitution, and the domestic backlash would be severe, likely resulting in a furious public outcry against any leader who agreed to formalise the loss of land.
This stance has found support on the international stage. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also insisted that Kyiv "should not be forced to surrender territory," reinforcing the moral and political quandary at the heart of the conflict.
Trump's Mediation Criticised as Major Impediment
The failure to bridge this fundamental chasm is being laid squarely at the feet of US President Donald Trump. His intervention has been labelled the single biggest impediment to progress, characterised by erratic shifts in his stance towards Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian cause. Critics argue that Trump seems repeatedly outmanoeuvred by Putin, whom he reportedly regards with a misplaced sense of camaraderie.
The leaking of the US draft plan is seen as a testament to this flawed approach. The entire exercise appears driven by Trump's desire to be hailed as a historic "peacemaker," leading him to propose concessions on territory that does not belong to the United States.
The sum total of these efforts is a dangerously escalated situation. Europe is now closer to a major conflict between NATO powers and Russia than at any time since the Cold War. The so-called peace plan has not extinguished the flames but has instead risked igniting a wider conflagration.
