California could be forced to wait for results in its primary elections, including the fiercely fought gubernatorial contest, due to a notoriously slow vote-counting system. Experts warn that a deluge of last-minute absentee ballots and the state's painstaking verification process could delay outcomes in the tightest races for days or even weeks.
Voting experts expect California's 58 county elections offices to be overwhelmed with last-minute absentee ballots, as has been the case in recent election cycles. The process of verifying each ballot individually can take weeks, creating a procedural problem when races are close, particularly in competitive congressional districts. This has left the entire country waiting to learn which party controls the House of Representatives, as happened in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
The slow count is also a political headache for both Democrats and Republicans. Outgoing Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and the Republican party, which has not won statewide office in 20 years, are concerned. Republicans have increasingly accused their opponents of dirty tricks without evidence.
In the 2024 presidential election, over 25% of California's votes arrived too late to be counted on election day. The percentage could be higher this time, as many voters strategically postponed their vote until they had a clearer picture of the crowded governor's race. Final polls show a volatile three-way race between Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, and Republican frontrunner Steve Hilton.
With over 23 million registered voters, the volume can overwhelm poll workers who are already overworked and underappreciated. Kim Alexander of the California Voter Foundation, a nonpartisan voting rights group, says that the longer the delay, the more voter confidence erodes, inviting false claims about election reliability despite the state's accessible and secure system.
Former President Donald Trump has been particularly critical of absentee ballots, blaming them for his 2020 defeat and alleging, without evidence, that California's results are padded by illegal votes from noncitizens. California Republicans echo this theme, with gubernatorial candidate Chad Bianco attempting to seize 650,000 ballots earlier this year in a hunt for evidence of fraud, though he was blocked by a court.
Hilton has embraced a ballot initiative requiring strict voter ID and proof of citizenship, which critics say would suppress minority and low-income voters. Newsom urged county election offices to speed up their counts, warning of an assault on democratic values.
California's absentee ballot procedures are praised for their fraud safeguards, including signature verification and cross-checking. However, this thoroughness slows the process. Experts note that many voters are unaware that submitting ballots less than three days before election day causes delays. In 26 counties, voters can walk in their absentee ballots to be processed on the spot, a practice Alexander wants expanded statewide.
State legislators have passed new laws to tighten reporting deadlines, requiring non-problem ballots to be counted within 13 days instead of 30, and limiting the window for correcting errors. However, these laws come without funding, frustrating county election officials who are expected to do more with limited resources. Secretary of State Shirley Weber opposed one bill, citing pressure on counties, but her critics say she has not lobbied for additional funding.
Wealthier counties like Los Angeles and Orange have invested in elections infrastructure, seeing improvements. Los Angeles, with 10 million residents, counted 77% of ballots one week after election day in 2022, but after a $10 million processing facility, that figure rose to 96.9% in 2024. Alexander says this proves California can improve, challenging the misconception that speed must be traded for accuracy or security.
