Security expert Peter Jennings has welcomed Australia's latest AUKUS reshuffle, after Defence Minister Richard Marles announced Australia would only receive second-hand nuclear submarines under the pact.
Mr Marles on Sunday confirmed the nation will now receive three second-hand Virginia-class submarines under the expensive defence deal. Australia was originally expected to receive two second-hand vessels and one brand new Virginia-class boat.
However, Mr Jennings, a former defence strategist and policy expert, said he was buoyed by the change of tack.
“If we get the block of boats, the build of boats that we’re aiming at, they’ll have about 20-year-plus life when we take them over,” he told Sky News Australia.
“Frankly, I would be happy to accept a 10-year-old Virginia-class boat any time ahead of what we currently have, which is six 20 and 30-year-old Collins-class boats that are almost at a point where they’re going to cease to be functional.
“It’s not perfect, but it’s an outcome that reflects reality of how fast the Americans can build.”
United States shipbuilders are estimated to be producing about 1.3 Virginia-class attack submarines each year. Earlier this year, a US naval official estimated the country could begin producing two boats per year by 2032. Even then, there would not be enough boats for Australia to acquire a brand-new vessel, Mr Jennings said.
“They need to be building something like two-and-a-third in order to supply their needs and ours with new boats,” he said.
“I feel, facing reality, that’s just not going to happen inside a decade, so here’s the fallback plan.”
Mr Jennings said the US planned on producing the attack submarines on a continuous basis and would aim to have about 35 to 40 Virginia-class boats.
“They put them out in what they call ‘blocks’ of five boats each. We’re looking at block four, which started to be constructed in 2020 and they will continue with that build,” he said.
“But... the numbers the Americans are looking at are the bare minimum for what their Navy really needs to deal with the China threat.
“For them to be passing those boats to Australia, that’s a massive vote in confidence in us, I think, a bit more confidence than we really deserve.”
Australia expects to receive the three Virginia-class submarines from 2032 onwards. Mr Marles recently met with his AUKUS counterparts on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
Alongside US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and UK Secretary for Defence John Healey, Mr Marles affirmed the first pillar of AUKUS remained on track.
In a statement, the Defence Minister said he welcomed the proposed approach to streamline Australia's acquisition of Virginia-class submarines while "simplifying supply chain management, operational and maintenance requirements, and maximising cost efficiencies".
Earlier this year, Mr Marles committed billions in additional defence investment over the next ten years. The Integrated Investment Program (IIP), which was unveiled alongside the National Defence Strategy for 2026, included defence spending of $14 billion over the forward estimates and $53 billion over the next decade.
However, the timeline underscoring the spend has come under scrutiny, with analysts warning much of the investment will occur later, rather than sooner. Critics have argued delays in key upgrades and acquisitions would leave Australia strategically exposed in the short term.
Speaking to the National Press Club, Mr Marles admitted Australia was “in a much more contested environment and one we need to be ready for”.
“We’re trying to calibrate the defence force that we build and where the Australian people... I guess where government needs to be at in terms of meeting that moment, and I think we are doing that,” he said.
