South Australia's March Election Could See Historic Liberal Wipeout
For thirty-three years, the Labor party has held the title for the most devastating election wipeout in South Australian political history. However, that infamous crown may soon be passed to the Liberals in the upcoming March state election. Current polling data strongly suggests a red seat wipeout is imminent, potentially leaving the Liberals with one of the worst election losses ever recorded. There is a distinct possibility that the party could be left holding no metropolitan Adelaide seats at all.
The Liberals' Troubled Electoral Record
The South Australian Liberals already possess one of the poorest election records in the nation, ranking only behind the Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory. This situation follows the 2025 Federal election, where then Liberal leader Peter Dutton suffered the party's worst result in over eighty years. The outcome was so disastrous that the official Liberal party election review has not been made public.
Current Polling and Voter Sentiment
How is South Australia faring as the state election approaches? According to a special SMS Roy Morgan survey, primary support for Labor stands at thirty-five percent, which is down five percent from the 2022 State Election. This places them well ahead of One Nation at twenty-eight percent, a staggering increase of twenty-five point four percent. The Opposition Liberal National Party trails significantly at sixteen point five percent, down nineteen point seven percent.
Support for the Greens is eleven percent, up one point nine percent, while three percent support Other Parties, down one point eight percent. Independents hold six point five percent support, down zero point eight percent. A clear majority of sixty-one percent of electors approve of the way Peter Malinauskas is handling his job as Premier of South Australia, compared to thirty-seven percent who disapprove, with two percent undecided.
Unsurprisingly, the survey indicates that a large majority of Liberal National Party and One Nation supporters disapprove of Premier Malinauskas's performance. Despite One Nation's booming popularity in the polls, Roy Morgan's latest analysis suggests they are unlikely to topple any major party, with Labor expected to remain in parliament.
Potential Political Realignments
Given the expected Liberal wipeout, a coalition between the Liberals and One Nation could emerge, or One Nation might form the new opposition if they secure a dozen lower house seats. However, One Nation remains an outside chance of gaining any metropolitan lower house seats in the March election, with many candidates relying on Pauline Hanson's name recognition to get elected.
A definite win for One Nation appears to be the almost guaranteed legislative council seat for Cory Bernardi, who will spearhead Pauline Hanson's push in the March twenty-first election. There is potential for another candidate or two to join him, which could ruffle the Labor-held upper house.
Key Seats to Watch
Tightly held seats across the state may not significantly alter the expected Liberal wipeout, but in some constituencies, Labor maintains only a small fraction of the vote. The Liberals might still retain some cherished blue seats.
- Dunstan is held by Labor by less than one percent.
- Gibson is held by Labor by two point five percent.
- Davenport favors Labor by three point four percent.
- Finnis might be held by the Liberals, but like Dunstan, they hold it by only zero point seven percent.
- Morialta is sitting at one point four percent, with the retiring Liberal MP likely causing a close result for the 2026 election.
- Unley is also expected to be close, with another Liberal MP retiring.
The seat to watch will be Kaval, where Labor only has a chance to win due to new and younger families, who are already Labor voters, moving into the area. The Liberals previously held a three point five percent swing, but only polling day will reveal whether Liberal voters will choose fresh-faced plumber Bradley Orr as their new MP or back popular independent Matt Schultz.
Much like predicting accurate weather reports, these presumed safe seats from the 2022 election may change right up until polling day, due to MPs retiring or some even awaiting criminal proceedings. Mackillop in South Australia's southeast is likely to be taken by the Liberals. Independent Nick McBride is running for re-election in MacKillop as he awaits criminal court proceedings relating to domestic violence charges.
Port Adelaide and Croydon are the safest Labor seats in South Australia. However, with Susan Close MP retiring, Labor's safe twenty-one point eight percent swing may change if voters dislike the new Labor candidate, union man and deputy chief of staff to the premier, Cheyne Rich.
