The upcoming Clacton byelection is expected to become a direct showdown between Reform UK leader Richard Tice and novelty candidate Count Binface, with the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives failing to mount a significant challenge, according to local campaign insiders.
Two-horse race emerges
With less than three weeks until polling day, internal party polling and canvassing data suggest that Tice and Binface have pulled ahead of the field. A source close to the Reform campaign said: "It's clearly a two-man race. The Lib Dems and Tories are nowhere." The byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Conservative MP Giles Watling, who held the seat with a majority of 8,702 in 2019.
Count Binface, whose real name is Jonathan David Harvey, is standing on a platform of "radical centrism" and has gained attention for his satirical policies, including making voting compulsory and renaming the House of Lords the "House of Peeps." He previously stood against Boris Johnson in Uxbridge in 2019 and came fifth with 443 votes.
Reform UK's strategy
Richard Tice, who took over as leader of Reform UK from Nigel Farage in 2021, has focused his campaign on local issues such as hospital waiting times, potholes, and immigration. He has sought to position himself as a serious alternative to the Conservatives, who have held the seat since 2010. "The people of Clacton have been let down by the Tories for too long. I'm here to deliver real change," Tice said at a campaign event.
Reform UK has poured significant resources into the byelection, with Tice personally canvassing door-to-door and the party deploying a team of 50 volunteers. The party hopes that a strong showing in Clacton will build momentum for the next general election.
Lib Dems and Tories struggle
The Liberal Democrats, who came third in 2019 with 12.5% of the vote, have been unable to break through. Their candidate, Peter Shearer, has struggled to gain visibility. Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate, Alex Storey, has been hampered by the national government's unpopularity and internal divisions over Brexit. A Conservative party source admitted: "It's an uphill battle. The national picture is making it very difficult for Alex."
The Labour Party, which came second in 2019 with 28.6% of the vote, is also trailing, according to the same polling. Their candidate, Kate Masters, has focused on cost-of-living issues but has failed to gain traction against the Tice-Binface dynamic.
Binface's appeal
Count Binface has attracted a dedicated following, particularly among younger voters and those disillusioned with mainstream politics. His manifesto includes pledges to introduce a tax on beards, make the national anthem more "banging," and require all politicians to wear name badges. Despite the absurdity, his campaign has been taken seriously enough to warrant a mention in national media. "I'm offering a fresh perspective. Politics doesn't have to be boring," Binface said.
The byelection is scheduled for 18 July. Analysts suggest that voter turnout will be key, as both Tice and Binface rely on mobilising their respective bases. A low turnout could favour the more established Reform campaign, while a high turnout might boost Binface's novelty appeal.
